The adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) could occur more rapidly than the adoption of past disruptive technologies such as automobiles and electric power, with global take-up likely to hit 10% by 2030 according to a new report.

In its June 8 report, Blockware Intelligence said it arrived at this forecast by examining historical adoption curves for nine past disruptive technologies, including automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet, and social media, along with the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption since 2009.

All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but [...] newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.

Using the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves, as well as the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption, the report was then able to arrive at its prediction.

It said that based on a metric called Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and Bitcoin’s predicted “CAGR of 60% we forecast that global Bitcoin adoption will break past 10% in the year 2030.”

Chart

Blockware Intelligence is the research arm of Blockware Solutions, a Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure company, so you might expect it to be bullish on adoption.

Chart

The intelligence unit said it expects Bitcoin adoption to reach saturation quicker than many other disruptive technologies, given direct monetary incentives to adopt, the current macro-environment, and because adoption growth will be accelerated by the internet. 

“From a consumer perspective, past technologies had convenience/efficiency-related incentives to adopt them: adopting automobiles allowed you to zoom past the horse and buggy, adopting the cell phone allowed you to make calls without being tied to a landline,” the report explains.

With Bitcoin direct financially incentivized adoption creates a game theory in which everyone’s best response is to adopt Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, like the internet, smartphones, and social media, also derives benefits the more people that adopt the technology, which is known as the “network effect”.

“Case in point if you were the only user on Twitter would it be of any value? It would not. More users make these technologies more valuable.”

However, the authors of the Blockware report stressed that the model used to predict the rate of adoption was only conceptual at this stage, adding it is neither meant to be used as investment advice nor a short-term trading tool and it would continue to be refined. However:

The general trend is clear; there is a high probability that Bitcoin’s global adoption will grow significantly into the future and thus so will price.

The report and model was reviewed by several crypto investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management, and M31 Capital.

Cryptocurrency adoption has been growing rapidly over the last few years. In 2021, global crypto ownership rates reached an average of 3.9%, with over 300 million crypto users worldwide, according to data from TripleA, a global cryptocurrency payment gateway.

Blockchain data platform Chainanalysis last year revealed that global adoption of bitcoin and cryptocurrency surged 881% from July 2020 to June 2021. It found Vietnam to have the highest cryptocurrency adoption, leading 154 countries analyzed, followed by India and Pakistan.

In April, a survey conducted by cryptocurrency exchange Gemini found that crypto adoption skyrocketed in 2021 in countries like India, Brazil, and Hong Kong as more than half of respondents from its 20 countries polled stated that they started investing in crypto in 2021.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Cryptos feed Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Assessing likelihood of 80% rally for BTC before 2023

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Assessing likelihood of 80% rally for BTC before 2023

Bitcoin price action over the last 72 hours indicates that a massive bullish move is coming. In the last two articles, we have taken a look at why this is possible from a technical and on-chain perspective. 

More Bitcoin News

Luna Classic price: Binance burned 6 billion LUNC, triggering massive rally in the altcoin

Luna Classic price: Binance burned 6 billion LUNC, triggering massive rally in the altcoin

Luna Classic (LUNC) price witnessed a massive spike on Friday, after yielding 12% gains overnight. The move came after the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance announced it would be burning 6.39 billion LUNC tokens. 

More Luna Classic News

Binance native token BNB and staking derivatives bleed after $5 million DeFi exploit on Ankr Protocol

Binance native token BNB and staking derivatives bleed after $5 million DeFi exploit on Ankr Protocol

Binance’s native token BNB suffered a 3% decline in response to the $5 million exploit on DeFi protocol Ankr Protocol. The BNB chain-based protocol confirmed that it has fallen victim to a multi-million dollar exploit. 

More Binance Coin News

Cardano price gets underpinned, could move 10% north before New Year

Cardano price gets underpinned, could move 10% north before New Year

Cardano (ADA) price action is trading in more quiet waters as the spillover effects and aftermath of FTX and BlockFi bankruptcies are finally easing into the background. 

More Cardano News

Bitcoin: Assessing chances of one last bear market rally for 2022

Bitcoin: Assessing chances of one last bear market rally for 2022

BTC is in a good place to trigger another bear market rally from a high-time frame perspective. This development, combined with the optimistic outlook seen in on-chain metrics, further strengthens the possibility of a happy ending to 2022.

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP