Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: US SEC likely to reject BTC ETF, experts say

Bitcoin price has been moving sideways for nearly 50 days now, with no directional bias in sight. With volatility hitting all-time lows, investors are bored out of their minds and are looking at other avenues for trading opportunities. But bears have been eye a retest of key hurdles to open short positions and bank on a mean reversion move. 

Also read: Institutional crypto investors spooked as Bitcoin spot ETF approvals could face delay

Bitcoin ETF decision and its implications

Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) gained a newfound momentum after BlackRock’s spot ETF filing in mid-June. This development has given investors something to look forward to. The second deadline for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve or reject ARK 21Shares’ Bitcoin ETF is on August 13.

As noted by Bloomberg’s James Seyffart, here are the deadlines for the upcoming ETFs.

While Seyffart is suggesting a potential rejection from the SEC, most experts are expecting a similar outcome. This outlook is obvious, considering the regulator’s stance on all things crypto. 

On the off chance that the SEC does approve ARK’s Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin price is likely going continue its 2023 rally and potentially tag the nearest key levels at $35,000 and $40,000, respectively. 

Since the SEC is likely going to reject the filing, investors can expect Bitcoin’s dry volatile spell to continue as it slowly struts lower. 

Crypto Analyst, Alex Krüger, stated that a “delay is almost a certainty and likely fully priced in.” He adds that if the SEC did approve “ARK ETF” then Bitcoin price would “run and not look back.”

Bitcoin price remains ambiguous 

Bitcoin price rallied 27% between June 14 and 23 after BlackRock’s announcement of the BTC spot ETF filing. This move extended the second leg of the 2023 bull rally and second quarter’s higher at $31,500. This high was swept on July 13, a few days after the start of the third quarter, which was a good sell-signal and an indication of the imminent correction. But the pioneer crypto has failed to budge, leading to a near 50-day consolidation.

After the sweep of the second quarter’s high at $31,500, Bitcoin price fell 8.48% in the next 11 days, temporarily forming a support floor. While BTC attempts to recover from this foothold, imbalances and liquidity pools await, both of which are good entry points for short-sellers. 

The imbalance, extending from $30,380 to $31,068, is known as Fair Value Gap (FVG) since it was created after the Bitcoin price quickly slid lower, creating a price delivery imbalance, favoring sellers. A pullback often ensues after the creation of an FVG, which pushes BTC back into this imbalance, allowing sellers to balance the inefficiency. 

Additionally, the swing highs created between July 16 to 23 have uncollected buy-stop liquidity. Interestingly, this liquidity is just below the FVG, which makes it a high-probability zone where Bitcoin price bears could enter short positions.

The idea behind this bearish outlook is that Bitcoin price has visibly created a local top after a 27% upswing. Therefore, exhaustion of buying pressure coupled with investors booking profits and short-sellers opening short positions would create enough sell-side pressure to kickstart a mean reversion. 

In such a case, the midpoint of this 27% move at $28,138 would be the first and ideal target. Following this level, the two deep discount levels at $27,330 and $26,767 are good places to book profits.

BTC/USDT 12-hour chart

A decisive break of the $31,500 level that flips into a support level would invalidate the bearish outlook for Bitcoin price. This move would produce a higher high and suggest a continuation of the uptrend, attracting sidelined buyers. 

Hence, investors need to be careful, especially if Bitcoin price overcomes the inefficiencies mentioned above. A spike in buying pressure would propel BTC to $35,000 and $40,000 critical hurdles.