Share:
  • BTC has dropped below the 100-day SMA in the daily chart.
  • The daily confluence detector shows an immediate resistance stack between $10,600-$10,700.

Bitcoin bears have remained in control of the market since yesterday, as the price dropped from $10,800 to $10,563 in the time period. The latest candlestick has opened below the 100-day SMA. As before, the price is still trending inside a symmetrical triangle pattern.

BTC/USD daily chart

BTCUSD daily chart

If the price has a bearish breakout from the triangle, the price will drop down to the $9,974.50, as defined by the TD sequential indicator. In the process, the price will finally break below the $10,000-mark. If the sellers break below this support level, it will be pretty catastrophic as the next viable support level is at the 200-day SMA ($9,520). The MACD shows that the market momentum is on the verge of reversing from bullish to bearish, which adds further credence to our pessimistic outlook.

On the flip side, if the buyers manage to have a positive breakout from the triangle, they will take the price up to the $11,950 resistance line, as defined by the TD sequential indicator. However, to make this upward price movement, the daily confluence detector tells us that BTC will first need to overcome a robust resistance stack between $10,600 and $10,700.

BTC daily confluence detector

fxsoriginal

The daily confluence detector is a useful tool that helps us locate strong resistance and support levels. As shown in the chart above, BTC bulls need to overcome the $10,600-$10,700 resistance stack to initiate price recovery.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

BTCUSD 4-hour chart

The 4-hour BTC/USD chart shows us that the current situation definitely favors the bears. The parabolic SAR has reversed from bullish to bearish. The price is currently sitting on top of the 200-4-hour-SMA curve. If the sellers manage to break below that, the next healthy support lies at $10,535. The only way the bulls can salvage this situation is to push the price up to the $10,800-level and force the parabolic SAR to reverse from bearish to bullish.

Bitcoin on-chain metrics

Let’s look at some charts from Santiment to gain a better understanding of the Bitcoin's overall network health.

Bitcoin 30-day MVRV

fxsoriginal

The 30-day Market Value To Realized Value (MVRV) is a metric that helps us see the average profit or loss of BTC holders in the last 30 days. This metric is based on the price when each token last moved. So, if MVRV is 1.5, then that means the holders have currently made 1.5X their investment. As of now, the MVRV is trending around 1, which shows that the holders have just about broken even on their initial investment. So, despite the bearish price action, the overall sentiment seems to be neutral.

Bitcoin Mean Coin Age

fxsoriginal

The mean coin age (MCA) visualizes the average amount of days that all BTC have stayed in their current addresses. A rising trend in this chart is indicative of a network-wide accumulation phase. As you can see for Bitcoin, the MACD has risen steadily over the last three months. This shows that the long-term holders are strengthening their positions irrespective of the price action.

Bitcoin Exchange Inflow

fxsoriginal

The final metric that we will look into is the exchange in-flow. This chart visualizes the amount of BTC moving daily to exchange wallets, not counting exchange-to-exchange transactions. A spike in the metric signifies short-term sell pressure. The thing to note about the latest bearish price action is that it doesn’t coincide with a large spike in the exchange inflow. This tells us that there is no intense selling pressure dictating this bearish price action, which is a positive sign.


Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Join Telegram

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Bitcoin price outlook as MicroStrategy buys 3,000 BTC just 52 days before halving

Bitcoin price outlook as MicroStrategy buys 3,000 BTC just 52 days before halving

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to ride on the exchange-traded funds (ETF) theme, as markets count the days to the halving, 52 days out (just about seven to eight) weeks). Meanwhile, Microstrategy has taken advantage of the current lull in the market to grow its BTC portfolio with yet another volumnous purchase for the second time in the month. 

More Bitcoin News

Pepe Price Prediction: PEPE is an outlier with over 15% gains as meme coins post single-digit surges

Pepe Price Prediction: PEPE is an outlier with over 15% gains as meme coins post single-digit surges

Pepe coin (PEPE) price is trading with a strong bullish bias, outperforming the meme coin top four, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Bonk Inu (BONK), which are up by single digits. Meme coins appear to be rallying after the Bitcoin price showed strength.

More Cryptocurrencies News

BTC ETF AUM could surpass Gold, expert says, amid enthusiasm for new investment funds

BTC ETF AUM could surpass Gold, expert says, amid enthusiasm for new investment funds

In a landmark decision on January 10, the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approved multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in a single go. Almost seven weeks down the line, the theme continues to drive the cryptocurrency market, giving investors the train to ride on as markets prepare for the BTC halving in 52 days.

More BTC News

Cardano price notes further decline, report reveals ADA ecosystem is plagued with dead coins

Cardano price notes further decline, report reveals ADA ecosystem is plagued with dead coins

Cardano price continued its decline on Monday. ADA price dropped nearly 3% in the past 24 hours. In a recent report by Alpha Quest, the protocol ranks in the top 10 blockchains that host dead coins. 

More Cardano news

Bitcoin: BTC likely to correct to $50,000 soon

Bitcoin: BTC likely to correct to $50,000 soon

Bitcoin price has formed a potential top signal that forecasts a sell-off. The weekly chart also points to a bearish divergence, which adds credence to the bearish outlook. Investors can expect BTC to consolidate between the $52,062 to $45,160 levels.

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP