• BTC has dropped below the 100-day SMA in the daily chart.
  • The daily confluence detector shows an immediate resistance stack between $10,600-$10,700.

Bitcoin bears have remained in control of the market since yesterday, as the price dropped from $10,800 to $10,563 in the time period. The latest candlestick has opened below the 100-day SMA. As before, the price is still trending inside a symmetrical triangle pattern.

BTC/USD daily chart

BTCUSD daily chart

If the price has a bearish breakout from the triangle, the price will drop down to the $9,974.50, as defined by the TD sequential indicator. In the process, the price will finally break below the $10,000-mark. If the sellers break below this support level, it will be pretty catastrophic as the next viable support level is at the 200-day SMA ($9,520). The MACD shows that the market momentum is on the verge of reversing from bullish to bearish, which adds further credence to our pessimistic outlook.

On the flip side, if the buyers manage to have a positive breakout from the triangle, they will take the price up to the $11,950 resistance line, as defined by the TD sequential indicator. However, to make this upward price movement, the daily confluence detector tells us that BTC will first need to overcome a robust resistance stack between $10,600 and $10,700.

BTC daily confluence detector

fxsoriginal

The daily confluence detector is a useful tool that helps us locate strong resistance and support levels. As shown in the chart above, BTC bulls need to overcome the $10,600-$10,700 resistance stack to initiate price recovery.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

BTCUSD 4-hour chart

The 4-hour BTC/USD chart shows us that the current situation definitely favors the bears. The parabolic SAR has reversed from bullish to bearish. The price is currently sitting on top of the 200-4-hour-SMA curve. If the sellers manage to break below that, the next healthy support lies at $10,535. The only way the bulls can salvage this situation is to push the price up to the $10,800-level and force the parabolic SAR to reverse from bearish to bullish.

Bitcoin on-chain metrics

Let’s look at some charts from Santiment to gain a better understanding of the Bitcoin's overall network health.

Bitcoin 30-day MVRV

fxsoriginal

The 30-day Market Value To Realized Value (MVRV) is a metric that helps us see the average profit or loss of BTC holders in the last 30 days. This metric is based on the price when each token last moved. So, if MVRV is 1.5, then that means the holders have currently made 1.5X their investment. As of now, the MVRV is trending around 1, which shows that the holders have just about broken even on their initial investment. So, despite the bearish price action, the overall sentiment seems to be neutral.

Bitcoin Mean Coin Age

fxsoriginal

The mean coin age (MCA) visualizes the average amount of days that all BTC have stayed in their current addresses. A rising trend in this chart is indicative of a network-wide accumulation phase. As you can see for Bitcoin, the MACD has risen steadily over the last three months. This shows that the long-term holders are strengthening their positions irrespective of the price action.

Bitcoin Exchange Inflow

fxsoriginal

The final metric that we will look into is the exchange in-flow. This chart visualizes the amount of BTC moving daily to exchange wallets, not counting exchange-to-exchange transactions. A spike in the metric signifies short-term sell pressure. The thing to note about the latest bearish price action is that it doesn’t coincide with a large spike in the exchange inflow. This tells us that there is no intense selling pressure dictating this bearish price action, which is a positive sign.

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Cryptos feed Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Assessing likelihood of 80% rally for BTC before 2023

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Assessing likelihood of 80% rally for BTC before 2023

Bitcoin price action over the last 72 hours indicates that a massive bullish move is coming. In the last two articles, we have taken a look at why this is possible from a technical and on-chain perspective. 

More Bitcoin News

Luna Classic price: Binance burned 6 billion LUNC, triggering massive rally in the altcoin

Luna Classic price: Binance burned 6 billion LUNC, triggering massive rally in the altcoin

Luna Classic (LUNC) price witnessed a massive spike on Friday, after yielding 12% gains overnight. The move came after the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance announced it would be burning 6.39 billion LUNC tokens. 

More Luna Classic News

Binance native token BNB and staking derivatives bleed after $5 million DeFi exploit on Ankr Protocol

Binance native token BNB and staking derivatives bleed after $5 million DeFi exploit on Ankr Protocol

Binance’s native token BNB suffered a 3% decline in response to the $5 million exploit on DeFi protocol Ankr Protocol. The BNB chain-based protocol confirmed that it has fallen victim to a multi-million dollar exploit. 

More Binance Coin News

Cardano price gets underpinned, could move 10% north before New Year

Cardano price gets underpinned, could move 10% north before New Year

Cardano (ADA) price action is trading in more quiet waters as the spillover effects and aftermath of FTX and BlockFi bankruptcies are finally easing into the background. 

More Cardano News

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Assessing likelihood of 80% rally for BTC before 2023

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Assessing likelihood of 80% rally for BTC before 2023

A massive bullish move is coming. In the last two articles, we have taken a look at why this is possible from a technical and on-chain perspective. In this weekly forecast, we will take a look at Bitcoin’s monthly performance for the last decade and determine if this bullish outlook is possible. 

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP