|

Bitcoin price is close to a market top, suggest accurate technical indicator

  • Bitcoin price shows strong buying momentum, indicating a revisit to its previous all-time high at $42,000.
  • BTC's on-chain transaction data shows an increase in whale activity at the current price levels.
  • Pi Cycle Top indicator warns about the probability of market top.

Bitcoin price has seen a strong surge since it broke out of a descending triangle pattern on February 2. While it looks poised for higher highs, there is a slight chance a market top is near.

Bitcoin price targets new all-time highs

The bulls continue in control of Bitcoin price, pushing it to higher highs. The recent break out of a descending triangle on the daily chart suggests that BTC could rise towards $45,000

Such an optimistic scenario is determined by measuring the height of the triangle's y-axis and adding it to the breakout point.  

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

According to trading veteran Peter Brandt, FOMO will likely kick in after Bitcoin price slices through its recent all-time high. Under such circumstances, BTC could rise even higher than the descending triangle's target of $45,000.

"I am confident Bitcoin will go MUCH MUCH MUCH higher over time. I believe the bullish BTC narrative to be true. I also am confident that the period since the January 8 high is part of or all of a consolidation poised for another upward thrust," said Brandt

Despite the high probability of higher highs on the horizon, Brandt believes that a daily close below $35,450 would invalidate the bullish outlook. Interestingly enough, some technical indexes add credence to this probability. 

On the vicinity of a market top

The Pi Cycle Top indicator by Philip Swift suggests that a market top might be near. The indicator consists of the 350 1-day moving average with a standard deviation of 2, and a simple 111 1-day moving average plotted against Bitcoin price chart. 

Theoretically, a crossover of the 111 one-day moving average above the 350 one-day moving average has accurately forecasted the end of Bitcoin's bullish cycles over the past nine years.

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator chart

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator chart

This technical indicator anticipated that Bitcoin price was bound for a steep correction in April 2013 when it rose to a high of $230. The crossover came just a few days before the actual market top when BTC was trading at $143.

Similarly, when Bitcoin topped in December 2013 at $1,135, the crossover between the 111 and 350 1-day moving averages was seen a day later. The end of the 2017 bull market was also forecasted by the Pi Cycle Top indicator exactly when Bitcoin peaked at a high of $19,640 in December of that year.

This time around, the two moving averages are converging towards each other, signaling that the top might be around the corner. The warning comes just as Bitcoin is about to retest its recent all-time high. 

Market participants must be aware that a spike in selling pressure could create a double top pattern, leading to the end of the ongoing bullish cycle. But as the 40-years trading veteran said, only a decisive close below $34,450 will confirm the bearish outlook

Author

Akash Girimath

Akash Girimath is a Mechanical Engineer interested in the chaos of the financial markets. Trying to make sense of this convoluted yet fascinating space, he switched his engineering job to become a crypto reporter and analyst.

More from Akash Girimath
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

Ripple holds $1.82 support as low retail demand weighs on the token

Ripple (XRP) is trading between a key support at $1.82 and resistance at $2.00 at the time of writing on Thursday, reflecting the lethargic sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market.

Aster declines for fifth straight day despite buyback efforts

Aster trades under intense selling pressure, recording 3% loss at press time on Thursday. The perpetual-focused exchange resumed its Stage 4 buyback program on Wednesday and currently holds almost 52 million ASTER tokens.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum hold steady while XRP slides amid mixed ETF flows

Bitcoin eyes short-term breakout above $87,000, underpinned by a significant increase in ETF inflows. Ethereum defends support around $2,800 as mild ETF outflows suppress its recovery. XRP holds above at $1.82 amid bearish technical signals and persistent inflows into ETFs.

Bitcoin steadies near $87,000 as strong ETF inflows offset bearish pressure

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize, holding near $87,000 on Thursday after this week’s pullback. Institutional demand shows signs of optimism, as US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded fresh inflows of over $457 million on Wednesday.

Orange Juice Newsletter – Smart insights by real people. Every day.

A free newsletter highlighting key market trends to help traders stay a step ahead. Daily insights on the most relevant trading topics, compiled by our experts in an easy-to-read format so you never miss an important move.

Bitcoin: Fed delivers, yet fails to impress BTC traders

Bitcoin (BTC) continues de trade within the recent consolidation phase, hovering around $92,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious December rate cut and its implications for risk assets.