Bitcoin Price Forecast: Will BTC pull back amid elevated profit-taking and demand for long side leverage?

Bitcoin markets show elevated profit-taking & demand for long-side leverage

Bitcoin (BTC) price is on a tear, still northbound after clearing previous peaks. Blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode highlighted, “[BTC] has broken to its fourth cycle all-time-high (ATH), rallying above $72k.” The report adds that the move had pushed sentiment a step closer to euphoria.

According to Glassnode researchers, a typical “wealth transfer from the HODLer cohort to speculators” is currently in play, citing notable upticks in spot profit-taking and demand for futures leverage.

Other interesting highlights from the report include:

• Bitcoin price has broken above the prior cycle ATH of $68,999.99, which makes this the fourth new cycle ATH in history.
• Several metrics suggest a striking similarity to past all-time high breaks with capital actively moving from old HODLers to new investors and speculators.
• There has been a notable surge in realized profit and futures funding rates, which points to increased profit booking and demand for long side leverage. Realized profit shows the total wealth stored in BTC on-chain.
• Investors who accumulated BTC at cheaper prices early enough tend to accelerate their distribution pressure as the price hits new ATHs. This means transfer of wealth from old to newer investors.
• The above dynamic reflects a healthy balance between distribution pressure and new demand.

Meanwhile, markets continue to digest the rise in US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to 3.2% in February from January’s 3.1%, as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday.  According to Nansen.ai’s Principal Research Analyst, Aurelie Barthere, “Even without a Fed rate cut, drivers such as institutional demand will keep propelling the largest crypto token to new highs.”

In terms of the short-term impact of today's US CPI release, we do not expect it to end the crypto bull market yet, nor to impact prices significantly in the coming weeks. There is too much bullish momentum in crypto (price and newsflow, see latest announcements on BlackRock allocated its own BTC ETF to two of its asset management funds).

Bitcoin price outlook as US CPI inflation rises to 3.2% in February

Bitcoin price remains well above the 2021 peak of $69,000, with the bulls not showing any signs of stopping. Trading above the $70,000 threshold, BTC could make a 12% climb to the $80,000 psychological level as buying pressure continues to increase.

The climbing Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests growing buyer momentum, driven by the strong presence of the bulls in the BTC market. This is seen with the large volumes of the Awesome Oscillator (AO), which continue to rise. The volume indicator also bolsters this supposition, increasing in size to show the predominant trend is gaining strength.

BTC/USDT 3-day chart

Conversely, with BTC massively overbought with the position of the RSI at 86, investors should not be surprised if Bitcoin price corrects. Traders looking to take short positions for BTC should probably wait for a three-day candlestick close below the $64,044 mean threshold of the supply zone between $62,278 and $65,618. A breakdown of the $64,044 midline would see BTC roll over to the $60,000 threshold. This would constitute a 15% drop below current levels. 

As reported, the Fear and Greed Index currently reflects extreme greed at 81, indicating that a potential market correction could be around the corner, because the market is overbought.