- Bitcoin price has registered its fourth new cycle all-time high this week, now trades above $72K.
- Glassnode researchers attribute BTC rally to market sentiment shifting to euphoria.
- The market shows a healthy balance between distribution pressure and new demand, which is a recipe for cyclical tops.
Bitcoin (BTC) price upside potential appears overstretched, but the bulls are not showing any signs of stopping. Meanwhile, research according to Glassnode points to elevated profit-taking and demand for long side leverage.
Also Read: Bitcoin cleared $70,000 and Ethereum, $4,000: What’s next for crypto?
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
What are altcoins?
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
What are stablecoins?
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
What is Bitcoin Dominance?
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Bitcoin markets show elevated profit-taking & demand for long-side leverage
Bitcoin (BTC) price is on a tear, still northbound after clearing previous peaks. Blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode highlighted, “[BTC] has broken to its fourth cycle all-time-high (ATH), rallying above $72k.” The report adds that the move had pushed sentiment a step closer to euphoria.
#Bitcoin has broken to its fourth cycle all-time-high, rallying above $72k, and pushing sentiment one step closer to Euphoria.
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 12, 2024
The classic wealth transfer from the HODLer cohort to speculators is now well underway, with significant upticks in spot profit taking, and demand for… pic.twitter.com/R11kE90W89
According to Glassnode researchers, a typical “wealth transfer from the HODLer cohort to speculators” is currently in play, citing notable upticks in spot profit-taking and demand for futures leverage.
Other interesting highlights from the report include:
- Bitcoin price has broken above the prior cycle ATH of $68,999.99, which makes this the fourth new cycle ATH in history.
- Several metrics suggest a striking similarity to past all-time high breaks with capital actively moving from old HODLers to new investors and speculators.
- There has been a notable surge in realized profit and futures funding rates, which points to increased profit booking and demand for long side leverage. Realized profit shows the total wealth stored in BTC on-chain.
- Investors who accumulated BTC at cheaper prices early enough tend to accelerate their distribution pressure as the price hits new ATHs. This means transfer of wealth from old to newer investors.
- The above dynamic reflects a healthy balance between distribution pressure and new demand.
Meanwhile, markets continue to digest the rise in US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to 3.2% in February from January’s 3.1%, as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday. According to Nansen.ai’s Principal Research Analyst, Aurelie Barthere, “Even without a Fed rate cut, drivers such as institutional demand will keep propelling the largest crypto token to new highs.”
In terms of the short-term impact of today's US CPI release, we do not expect it to end the crypto bull market yet, nor to impact prices significantly in the coming weeks. There is too much bullish momentum in crypto (price and newsflow, see latest announcements on BlackRock allocated its own BTC ETF to two of its asset management funds).
Bitcoin price outlook as US CPI inflation rises to 3.2% in February
Bitcoin price remains well above the 2021 peak of $69,000, with the bulls not showing any signs of stopping. Trading above the $70,000 threshold, BTC could make a 12% climb to the $80,000 psychological level as buying pressure continues to increase.
The climbing Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests growing buyer momentum, driven by the strong presence of the bulls in the BTC market. This is seen with the large volumes of the Awesome Oscillator (AO), which continue to rise. The volume indicator also bolsters this supposition, increasing in size to show the predominant trend is gaining strength.
BTC/USDT 3-day chart
Conversely, with BTC massively overbought with the position of the RSI at 86, investors should not be surprised if Bitcoin price corrects. Traders looking to take short positions for BTC should probably wait for a three-day candlestick close below the $64,044 mean threshold of the supply zone between $62,278 and $65,618. A breakdown of the $64,044 midline would see BTC roll over to the $60,000 threshold. This would constitute a 15% drop below current levels.
As reported, the Fear and Greed Index currently reflects extreme greed at 81, indicating that a potential market correction could be around the corner, because the market is overbought.
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