• Bitcoin price trades around $28,000 with no signs of directional bias. 
  • The 7-day, 30-day, 90-day and 180-day MVRV are all close to zero, providing a clean slate for BTC. 
  • Sell-side and buy-side liquidity are present 10% and 9% away at roughly $30,300 and $24,900. 

Bitcoin (BTC) price shows indecision as it trades roughly around the $28,000 level. A look at on-chain metrics reveals why sideways movement is predominant and that a sharp move in BTC is likely to arrive soon.

Also read: Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC bearish fractal forecasts correction to $25,000

Bitcoin price action culls all profits and losses

Bitcoin (BTC) price has inflated by 12% in the last month and currently trades sideways around the $28,000 level. But Santiment’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) index shows that holders are neither at profit nor loss. 

This index is used to measure the average profit/loss of investors who purchased BTC over a specified period. The 7-day MVRV gives results for holders who bought BTC over the past week. Currently, the 7-day, 30-day, 90-day and 180-day MVRV are all hovering close to 0, which means that the BTC holders are effectively at a no-profit, no-loss state. 

If there were a lot of investors in profit, the market could form a top as these holders booked profits. On the contrary, if there were a lot of unrealized losses in the market, long-term holders could potentially buy the dip, triggering a rally. Since neither is true, the directional bias for Bitcoin is ambiguous. 

BTC 7, 30, 90, 180-day MVRV 

BTC 7, 30, 90, 180-day MVRV 

Assessing BTC’s directional bias

Bitcoin investors should not disregard the macro outlook, especially after the October 6 jobs report. This event showed an addition of 336,000 jobs in September, which was much higher than the forecast of 170,000. Hence, this key macroeconomic event caught the market by surprise and caused the US Dollar to rally, triggering a short-term plummet in risk-on markets.

As a result, the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday is key as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could further reinforce the idea of another rate hike in November.

At the start of this week, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 30.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. After the recent jobs report, this number has dropped to 21.2%. The majority still believe that the Fed will keep the policy rate of 5.25% to 5.50% unchanged. 

CME FedWatch Tool 

CME FedWatch Tool 

In the Jackson Hole meeting, the Fed hinted at one more rate hike in 2023 should the data call for it. Considering the recent jobs report, Powell might reinforce this idea, which could add more headwinds to riskier assets. 

While NFP numbers are important, the inflation numbers and the Core PCE Price Index set to be released on October 11 and October 27 will play a pivotal role in the Fed’s interest rate decision on November 1.

Bitcoin technicals are hesitant but suggest an upside move 

Bitcoin price is hovering below $28,352, which is the midpoint of the 21% crash that occurred between July 13 and September 11. A closer look at the technicals reveals that the Relative Strength Index (RSI)  and Awesome Oscillator (AO) both are not exhibiting bearish signs yet. 

In this case, a further northbound move could be likely for Bitcoin price. 

The target for bulls in this direction would be the buy-side liquidity resting above the swing highs formed between July 20 and August 8. In total, this move would constitute a nearly 9% ascent. 

A wild-card scenario like an approval of spot Bitcoin ETF could send Bitcoin price well above $30,000 and potentially to $35,000 or $40,000. Such a scenario, as mentioned above, is unlikely, but the chances of it occurring are never zero. 

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

On the flip side, if the Fed confirms a rate hike in the FOMC, the short-term implication of this news could send Bitcoin price lower to collect the buy-side liquidity resting around $24,900. 

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Ethereum continues hinting at rally following reduced long liquidations

Ethereum continues hinting at rally following reduced long liquidations

Ethereum has continued showing signs of a potential rally on Tuesday as most coins in the crypto market are also posting gains. This comes amid speculation of a potential decline following FTX ETH sales and normalizing ETH risk reversals.

More Ethereum News

HBAR price jumps 75% as BlackRock tokenizes Money Market Fund on Hedera

HBAR price jumps 75% as BlackRock tokenizes Money Market Fund on Hedera

Archax, Ownera and The HBAR Foundation have enabled the first tokenization of BlackRock’s money market fund (MMF) on Hedera. Last year Hedera Council member abrdn’s successfully tokenized its MMFs on Hedera. 

More Hedera News

Bitcoin price holds above $66K as Morgan Stanley files prospectus to add BTC ETF exposure in two of its funds

Bitcoin price holds above $66K as Morgan Stanley files prospectus to add BTC ETF exposure in two of its funds

Bitcoin (BTC) price remains range-bound, holding above the $63,000 level, while its upside is capped below $68,000, going against or delaying the assumption that the fourth halving would be a 'sell-the-news' outcome. 

More Bitcoin News

Crypto community reacts as BRICS considers launching stablecoin for international trade settlement

Crypto community reacts as BRICS considers launching stablecoin for international trade settlement

BRICS is intensifying efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar after plans for a stablecoin effort surfaced online on Tuesday. Most people expect the stablecoin to be backed by gold, considering BRICS nations have been accumulating large holdings of the commodity.

More Cryptocurrencies News

Bitcoin: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium

Bitcoin: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly slipped below the $60,000 level for the last three days, attracting buyers in this area as the fourth BTC halving is due in a few hours. Is the halving priced in for Bitcoin? Or will the pioneer crypto note more gains in the coming days? 

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP