Will Hang Seng go for a lower low?

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded lower yesterday, after hitting resistance at 24805. Overall, the index remains below the tentative downside resistance line drawn from the high of June 28th, and thus, we would still see a negative near-term picture.

A clear and decisive dip below 23765, marked by Tuesday’s low, would confirm a forthcoming lower low on both the 4-hour and daily charts and may pave the way towards the 22970 territory, defined as a support by the low of September 25th, 2020. If that barrier is not able to halt the slide, then its break may result in extensions towards the low of May 25th, 2020, at 22500.

Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI turned down after it hit resistance slightly below its 50 line, while the MACD, although above its trigger line, has topped within its negative territory. Both indicators suggest that the index is gaining back some downside speed, which is in line with the scenario of seeing further near-term declines.

In order to abandon the bearish case and start examining whether the bulls have stolen the bears’ swords, we would like to see a recovery above 26215. This may confirm the break above the aforementioned tentative downside resistance line and may initially target the 26890 zone, which is defined as a resistance by the inside swing lows of July 9th and 21st. Another break, above 26890, could carry larger bullish implications, perhaps setting the stage for the peak of July 22nd, at 27755.


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