Weekly waves: EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and gold

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD monthly chart, the Bitcoin cryptocurrency daily chart, and XAU/USD on the daily chart.
The EUR/USD monthly chart is testing a key support zone and trend line (green) and facing a decisive moment: will price action break or bounce?
The BTC/USD made a bearish reversal, which means that the bullish pattern is probably an ABC (blue) pattern.

Chris Svorcik Elite CurrenSea

EUR/USD faces decisive support zone

The EUR/USD monthly chart is testing a key support zone and trend line (green):

The EUR/USD is facing a decisive moment: will price action break or bounce?
The EUR/USD bullish bounce would confirm a potential ABCDE (pink) triangle pattern within wave B (red).
Price action needs to break above the opening of this month and last month’s high. An ABC up could be expected within wave E (pink).
The EUR/USD bearish breakout would indicate an immediate downtrend. In that case, price action completed an ABC (pink) correction and is making a decline within a 123 (pink) of wave C (red).

BTC/USD bearish swing to rebound at Fibs

Bitcoin has made a small bearish reversal. Is the crypto currency looking for a downtrend or for a bounce, let’s review:

The BTC/USD made a bearish reversal, which means that the bullish pattern is probably an ABC (blue) pattern.
However, we expect price action to develop a larger bullish correction within wave B (purple).
Therefore, a bullish and expanded WXY (pink) pattern is the current favorite Elliott Wave pattern in wave B (purple).
A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci support levels would confirm it.
But a bearish breakout below the support zone would indicate it.
The main targets are located at the Fibonacci targets.

Gold pushing for a bullish breakout

The XAU/USD has made a bullish bounce and is now testing the resistance:

The XAU/USD made a strong push up for a wave 3 (blue).
The retracement is probably a wave 4 (blue), although the wave 4 can be extended and complete itself at a later moment in time (blue 4’).
A breakout (green arrows) above the resistance (orange) could indicate an attempt to test the previous top.
A break below the previous tops (blue boxes) would invalidate the bullish outlook.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Author

Chris Svorcik

Elite CurrenSea

Experience Chris Svorcik has co-founded Elite CurrenSea in 2014 together with Nenad Kerkez, aka Tarantula FX. Chris is a technical analyst, wave analyst, trader, writer, educator, webinar speaker, and seminar speaker of the financial markets.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.