Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
- In the US, focus next week is on the FOMC minutes from the October meeting due on Wednesday. Here we will get more details on why the Fed flagged a clear tightening bias.
- Q3 GDP figures in Norway will be the centre of attention in the Scandi market next week. Recent key figures have not painted a particularly clear picture of the Norwegian economy in Q3 so uncertainty is high with regard to the release.
- Otherwise focus is increasingly on the IMF decision about the inclusion of China in the SDR. No formal date has been announced but November has been mentioned as the month for the decision.
- In the UK, CPI inflation in October is due on Tuesday. Although we previously argued that the bottom for inflation was reached in September, we have been caught by surprise by a drop in gasoline prices.
Global macro and market themes
- Euro risk assets getting more support.
- Core euro bond yields caught between Fed hikes and ECB easing.
- EUR/USD heading lower short term.
- CNY to weaken but we still do not expect big devaluation.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD rises toward 1.0800 on USD weakness
EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.0750 in the second half of the day on Monday. The US Dollar struggles to find demand as investors reassess the Fed's rate outlook following Friday's disappointing labor market data.
GBP/USD closes in on 1.2600 as risk mood improves
Following Friday's volatile action, GBP/USD pushes higher toward 1.2600 on Monday. Soft April jobs report from the US and the improvement seen in risk mood make it difficult for the US Dollar to gather strength.
Gold gathers bullish momentum, climbs above $2,320
Gold trades decisively higher on the day above $2,320 in the American session. Retreating US Treasury bond yields after weaker-than-expected US employment data and escalating geopolitical tensions help XAU/USD stretch higher.
Addressing the crypto investor dilemma: To invest or not? Premium
Bitcoin price trades around $63,000 with no directional bias. The consolidation has pushed crypto investors into a state of uncertainty. Investors can expect a bullish directional bias above $70,000 and a bearish one below $50,000.
Three fundamentals for the week: Two central bank decisions and one sensitive US Premium
The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to strike a more hawkish tone, reversing its dovish shift. Policymakers at the Bank of England may open the door to a rate cut in June.