Today at 1.30pm BST we have US CPI and Core CPI data releases which are the most important ones of the week.
The market will mainly be focused on the core reading. A positive deviation on the core figures will help support inflation expectations, translating into dollar strength. A negative deviation however may see further reductions in rate hike expectations and USD weakness.
Description
CPI measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. CPI is the most important inflation-related release due to its earliness and broad scope. This CPI release is seasonally adjusted. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation and inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates to contain inflation.
Summary
Inflation remains one of the Fed’s primary concerns and reasons for reducing their rate hike expectations to only 2 hikes in 2016. At March’s FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Yellen referred to the recent rise in core inflation as potentially caused by transitory factors, stating that “Core inflation (which excludes energy and food prices) has also picked up, although it remains to be seen if this firming will be sustained”. Since March’s FOMC, rate hike expectations have once again fell to around 50%, inflation data will be a key component to market expectations, and highly influential to Fed members in regards to future rate decisions.
Core CPI m/m is expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2% for March, however CPI m/m is expected to increase from -0.2% to 0.2%. Core CPI y/y and CPI y/y are expected to remain unchanged at 2.3% and 1.0% respectively.
US CPI and Core CPI release was also covered in weekly risk events video here.
At no time should anyone view the information presented anywhere on this website as advice, recommendation or proven. Everything reflected is merely opinion and may not be accurate. The purpose of the site is to express the opinions and views of Jarratt Davis. There is no intention to offer specific help, advice or suggestions to anyone reading any of the content posted here.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0700, eyes on German CPI data
EUR/USD trades on a stronger note around 1.0710 during the early Monday. The weaker US Dollar below the 106.00 mark provides some support to the major pair. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected.
USD/JPY extends recovery after testing 155.00 on likely Japanese intervention
USD/JPY is recovering ground after crashing to 155.00 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Holiday-thinned trading exaggerates the USD/JPY price action.
Gold tests critical daily support line, will it defend?
Gold price is seeing a negative start to a new week on Monday, having booked a weekly loss. Gold price bears the brunt of resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand and a risk-on market mood amid Japanese holiday-thinned market conditions.
XRP plunges to $0.50, wipes out recent gains as Ripple community debates ETHgate impact
Ripple loses all gains from the past seven days, trading at $0.50 early on Monday. XRP holders have their eyes peeled for the Securities and Exchange Commission filing of opposition brief to Ripple’s motion to strike expert testimony.
Week ahead: FOMC and jobs data in sight
May kicks off with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and will be one to watch, scheduled to make the airwaves on Wednesday. It’s pretty much a sealed deal for a no-change decision at this week’s meeting.