AUD/USD – Failed To Go Any Higher

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EUR/USD

The dollar weakens.

• EUR/USD keeps on pushing higher and is now lying around former resistance at 1.1376 (11/02/2016 high). Hourly support is given at 1.1144 (24/03/2016 low). Stronger support is located a 1.1058 (16/03/2016 low). Expected to show further consolidation.

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance at 1.1746 ( holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deterioration implies a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).

 

GBP/USD

Sideways price action.

• GBP/USD is still trading without direction despite the medium-term technical structure is clearly bearish. Hourly resistance is given at 1.4591 (05/02/2016 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.4171 (01/04/2016 low). A break of stronger resistance at 1.4668 (04/02/2016) is nonetheless needed to show a reverse in the medium-term momentum.

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards key support at 1.3503 (23/01/2009 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

 

USD/JPY

Growing selling pressures.

• USD/JPY's medium term momentum is negative. Yet, the pair has traded in range over the last two months. On the short-term, selling pressures are increasing. Hourly support is given at 110.67 (17/03/2016 low). Hourly resistance is given at 113.80 (29/03/2016 high) while stronger resistance is given at 114.91 (16/02/2016 high). Expected to further weaken.

• We favour a long-term bearish bias. Support at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low) is on target. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems now less likely. Another key support can be found at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low).

 

USD/CHF

Pausing.

• USD/CHF has weakened over the last month which confirms increasing selling pressures. Yet, the pair is now consolidating. Hourly support can be found at 0.9556 (01/04/2016 low) while hourly resistance is located at 0.9788 (25/03/2016 high). Stronger resistance can be found at 0.9913 (16/03/2016 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the long-term, the pair is setting highs since mid-2015. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias.

 

USD/CAD

Bouncing further.

• USD/CAD is bouncing higher but the mediumterm bearish momentum is clearly strong. Hourly support can be found at 1.2912 (30/03/2016 low) while hourly resistance is given at 1.3296 (24/03/2016 high). Expected to show continued weakness towards 1.2800.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support at 1.2832 (15/10/2015) would indicate increasing selling. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Stronger support can be found at 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

 

AUD/USD

Failed to go any higher.

• AUD/USD's bullish momentum seems to fade. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.7723 (31/03/2016 high). Hourly support is given at 0.7415 (16/03/2016 low). Buying pressures remain nonetheless important as long as the pair remains above 0.7415.

• In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair is now above the 200-dma which confirms our view that buying pressures are increasing.

 

EUR/CHF

Low volatility.

• EUR/CHF is pushing higher. Very short-term bullish pressures are still on despite being weak. Hourly support can be found at 1.0874 (23/03/2016 low) while hourly resistance is given at 1.1023 (10/03/2016 high). Expected to show again further weakness.

• In the longer term, the technical structure remains positive. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

 

EUR/JPY

Riding uptrend channel.

• EUR/JPY is moving up and down inside the uptrend channel. Short-term momentum is definitely growing. Hourly support is given at 124.68 (22/03/2016 low) while hourly resistance can be found at 128.22 (31/03/2016 high). Expected to show further increase.

• In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support is given at 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

 

EUR/GBP

New year-high.

• EUR/GBP has broken the uptrend channel and is now lying above 0.8000. Hourly support lies at 0.7830 (29/03/2016 low). Stronger support can be found at 0.7525 (22/01/2016 low). The technical structure suggests that the pair should show continued increase.

• In the long-term, the technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading well above its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.8066 (10/09/2014 high).

 

GOLD (in USD)

Failing to break support at 1208.

• Gold is in a short-term downtrend channel despite some retracement. Hourly support is given at 1208 (28/03/2016) while hourly resistance is given at 1260 (22/03/2016 high). A break of support at 1182 (08/02/2016 low) is necessary to confirm a deeper bearish trend.

• In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

 

SILVER (in USD)

Direction-less.

• Silver is trading mixed. Hourly resistance is given at 16.14 (18/03/2016 high) while hourly support can be found at 15.06 (29/03/2016 low). Expected to see further increase as the technical structure suggests that nonetheless buying pressures should rejuvenate.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

 

Crude Oil (in USD)

Targeting support at 35.96.

• Crude oil's ongoing move is a consolidation. A break of hourly support at 35.96 (15/03/2016 low) is needed to confirm stronger bearish trend. Daily resistance is given at 42.00 (04/12/2016 high). Expected to bounce back.

• In the long-term, crude oil is on a sharp decline and is of course no showing any signs of recovery. Strong support at 24.82 (13/11/2002) is now on target. Crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at around 47). There are currently no signs that a reverse trend may happen.

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