USDCHF: Support at 0.8908 intact thus far

EUR/USD

Broader consolidation favoured.

• EUR/USD has broken the hourly resistance at 1.3602 (10/06/2014 high). A short-term rise towards the resistance at 1.3677 (see also the 38.2% retracement) is favoured as long as the hourly support at 1.3584 (19/06/2014 low) holds. A key support stands at 1.3503. An hourly resistance now lies at 1.3644 (19/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. The long-term downside risk implied by the double-top formation is 1.3379. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Challenging the major resistance at 1.7043.

• GBP/USD continues to challenge the major resistance at 1.7043. A bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low) holds. Another support can be found at 1.6882 (27/05/2014 high).

• In the longer term, a bullish bias is favoured as long as the support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low) holds. The persistent buying interest favours an eventual break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high). Other resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Monitor the support implied by the 200 day moving average.

• USD/JPY remains weak despite the proximity of the support implied by the 200 day moving average (around 101.61). Another support lies at 101.43. An hourly resistance stands at 102.42, while a key resistance stands at 103.02.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. Monitor the support area provided by the 200 day moving average and 100.76 (04/02/2014 low). A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Support at 0.8908 intact thus far.

• USD/CHF has thus far successfully tested the support at 0.8908 (05/06/2014 low, see also the 38.2% retracement). A resistance for a short-term bounce can be found at 0.8967 (19/06/2014 high). A strong resistance area lies between 0.9012 and 0.9037. Another support stands at 0.8883.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Long 1 unit at 0.8794, Obj: Close remaining at 0.9115, Stop: 0.8872 (Entered: 2014-05-08).

USD/CAD

Monitor the support at 1.0814.

• USD/CAD is challenging the support at 1.0814. The short-term momentum is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.0892 (18/06/2014 high). Another support is given by the 200 day moving average (around 1.0781).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom with a minimum target at 1.1725. However, the persistent lack of sustainable buying interest since April is worrying. Key supports are given by the 200 day moving average (around 1.0781) and the longterm rising trendline (around 1.0623).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Resistance at 0.9438 intact thus far.

•  AUD/USD has bounced sharply near the support at 0.9319 (06/06/2014 low, see also the 50% retracement). However, the strong resistance area between 0.9438 (12/06/2014 high) and 0.9461 has thus far held. An hourly support can be found at 0.9377 (50% retracement of the recent bounce).

• In the medium-term, prices are moving within a horizontal range between 0.9206 and 0.9461. The direction of the breakout is likely to give the next significant trend. For the time being, we favour further sideways moves.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Pushing higher.

• GBP/JPY has breached the key resistance at 173.66. Another key resistance stands at 174.85. A short-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 172.73 holds.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) and the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline from the February 2013 low) holds. A key resistance lies at 174.85 (02/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

The resistance at 138.75 has been breached.

•  EUR/JPY is bouncing after having broken the support implied by its 200 day moving average. A decisive break of the hourly resistance at 138.75 would open the way for a short-term move towards the resistance at 139.43 (10/06/2014 high). Hourly supports can be found at 138.42 (intraday low) and 138.16 (intraday low).

• Despite the strong support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Unimpressive bounce thus far.

• EUR/GBP remains weak despite the recent successful test of the support at 0.7961. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.8033 (intraday low, see also the 38.2% retracement) and 0.8065 (12/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8184 (14/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Making new lows.

• EUR/CHF has broken its support at 1.2163 after days of consolidation. Another support lies at 1.2141. An hourly resistance lies at 1.2176 (intraday low). However, a break of the resistance at 1.2200 (09/06/2014 high) is needed to negate the downside risk implied by the recent break of the symmetrical triangle.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Surging higher.

• Gold surged higher yesterday, breaking out of its declining channel. However, the short-term overextended rise and the strong resistance at 1331 suggest a limited short-term upside potential. Hourly supports stand at 1298 (38.2% of the rise from 1258) and 1285 (16/06/2014 high).

• Longer term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Bullish breakout at 20.41.

• Silver surged higher yesterday. The key resistance at 20.41 has been broken. Another resistance lies at 21.79 (14/03/2014 high). Hourly supports can be found at 20.41 (previous resistance) and 20.00 (14/05/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.