Share:
  • UK jobs data sees both earnings and claimants fall short of expectations.

  • US inflation dominates sentiment, with headline CPI likely to head lower.

  • Crude demand outlook from IEA and OPEC helps lift WTI.

European markets are tentatively higher as traders overlook a somewhat worrying jobs report to focus on the impending inflation data due out in the US. The latest UK employment numbers saw total average earnings remain stubbornly high, with the September figure of 7.9% standing well above the 7.2-7.4% zone expected by markets. This has obvious implications for inflation, although those fears are likely to be allayed by a sharp decline in UK CPI tomorrow. On the positive side, the uptick in October claimants proved to be less notable than many had predicted, with the steady unemployment rate similarly easing fears that we are seeing signs of economic distress in the UK. With claimants on the rise, and average earnings headline lower, there is a case that we are exhibiting the kind of soft landing and disinflation the BoE have been trying hard to manufacture.

Looking ahead, the US inflation reading looks set to dominate sentiment as traders attempt to gauge whether the Fed are done or due another one. The decline in energy prices over the course of October should help drive down this metric, with the 0.1% expected marking a significant shift from the 0.4% and 0.6% seen in September and August. Crucially, we look to see headline CPI return to the disinflation trend seen in the first half of 2023, with markets likely to celebrate the reversion back on course after three-months of higher or flat CPI. While there has been some concern over the impact from new calculations over health insurance and how that could provide a short-term boost to inflation, there is also a feeling that last month’s jump in rental prices should reverse and work alongside energy to drive down CPI inflation today.

Crude oil prices are consolidating after yesterday’s boost in the wake of the OPEC report which raised their oil demand outlook, noting that Chinese and US demand was not falling to a concerning extent. The impact of energy prices on inflation will be evident today, with the US CPI likely to be driven lower thanks to the WTI weakness seen last month. Today’s IEA upgrade to their demand forecast for 2024 brings additional fuel to the bullish crude story, although the price of crude has remained stable as the demand upgrade is balanced against the expectation of record supply in 2023 and 2024.

Share: Feed news

This material is a marketing communication and shall not in any case be construed as an investment advice, investment recommendation or presentation of an investment strategy. The marketing communication is prepared without taking into consideration the individual investors personal circumstances, investment experience or current financial situation. Any information contained therein in regards to past performance or future forecasts does not constitute a reliable indicator of future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Scope Markets shall not accept any responsibility for any losses of investors due to the use and the content of the abovementioned information. Please note that forex trading and trading in other leveraged products involves a significant level of risk and is not suitable for all investors.

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended Content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD extends recovery gains above 0.6500 on softer US Dollar

AUD/USD extends recovery gains above 0.6500 on softer US Dollar

AUD/USD is extending its rebound above 0.6500 in Asian trading on Thursday. The pair advances due to the USD/JPY slide-led US Dollar weakness. The mixed Australian Retail Sales and Q4 Private Capex data had little impact on the Aussie. Key US PCE inflation data awaited. 

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY extends sell-off below 150.00 on BoJ Takata's hawkish signals

USD/JPY extends sell-off below 150.00 on BoJ Takata's hawkish signals

USD/JPY is extending losses below 150.00 after coming under intense selling pressure on hawkish comments from BoJ policymaker Takata. Takata hinted at a likely policy pivot, sending the Japanese Yen higher across the board. US PCE inflation data is next on tap. 

USD/JPY News

Gold price remains below a key hurdle as traders keenly await the US PCE Price Index

Gold price remains below a key hurdle as traders keenly await the US PCE Price Index

Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday and looks to build on the overnight modest bounce from the $2,025-2,024 area, or the weekly low. The precious metal, however, remains below the $2,040-2,042 strong horizontal barrier as traders keenly await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. 

Gold News

Bitcoin ETF success could see Ethereum alternative soon, says Jim Cramer

Bitcoin ETF success could see Ethereum alternative soon, says Jim Cramer

Following the landmark approval of multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 10, this has been the abounding theme in the cryptocurrency market. 

Read more

The Fed's favoured measure of inflation on tap “the PCE deflator“

The Fed's favoured measure of inflation on tap “the PCE deflator“

Unless you were out caving, like Lando Norris was and missed out on when the Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari news broke, you likely heard that Equities hit fresh record highs last week in several markets from Europe to Japan.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures