Mixed to good data, US stocks bounce.

Fed is signalling big hikes in 2022.

Australian Capex seriously soft.

Australian Capital Expenditure suffered a steep contraction in the third quarter and things are going to be pretty ugly for the current quarter as well. We know the economy suffered lockdowns, but the point keeps getting missed that the Australian economy was already slowing before the latest round of lockdowns began.

These are national figures, and while the most populated states of NSW and Victoria where heavily impacted, we should have seen a better result if all other States were powering on. They were not.

My warning remains that there are far more deeply seated challenges facing the Australian economy, than the initial post lockdown massive stimulus surge data allowed others to see.

The abyss of fresh economic activity now facing us,

post-the stimulus suck forward into last year,

is a very scary thing indeed.

The RBA will be forced to hike rates in 2022, in a sub-trend quite modest economic growth period. The Australian stock market and currency are already under-performing or falling fast, and these are the major macro-market trends of the foreseeable future.

US Durable Goods Orders contracted for the second month in a row.

US Personal Consumption Price Index, below, a good handle on inflationary pressures, actually accelerated.

This is a worrying combination. despite other strong data.

The slightly firm home sales data could be a sign people are again fleeing the cities, but this time permanently to more regional centres.

New Weekly Jobs Claims collapsed back into normal, and even to a 59 year low. Holiday season hiring being the likely major factor here. That could well reverse after the season.

The World is Hiking Rates while the RBA dribbles.

South Korea, New Zealand raise rates again. The US Federal Reserve strongly shifts to it will be raising rates sooner jargon, and the RBA continues to sit on its hands.

I don't even know if they bother to go to the office?

Despite being the world's highest paid central bankers? Why? Because they organised that review and dramatic hike for themselves a few years ago. Without even telling the Treasurer of the day? He was not amused, and neither should any of us be...



A new early morning First Thoughts quick market overview.

RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange and derivatives trading carry a high level of risk. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, we encourage you to consider your investment objectives, your risk tolerance and trading experience. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment, so do not invest money you cannot afford to lose。 ACY Securities Pty Ltd (ABN: 80 150 565 781 AFSL: 403863) provides general advice that does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice; please seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. The FSG and PDS are available upon request or registration. If there is any advice on this site, it is general advice only. ACY Securities Pty Ltd (“ACY AU”) is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC AFSL:403863). Registered address: Level 18, 799 Pacific Hwy, Chatswood NSW 2067. AFSL is authorised us to provide our services to Australian Residents or Businesses.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1300 area as NFP-inspired dollar weakness fades

EUR/USD jumped to a daily high of 1.1333 with the initial market reaction to the disappointing November Nonfarm Payrolls data but quickly returned below 1.1300. Rising US Treasury bond yields seem to be helping the dollar stay resilient against its major rivals. 


GBP/USDdrops to 1.3250 area as dollar regains strength

GBP/USD spiked above 1.3300 in the early American session with the initial market reaction to the gloomy US November jobs report. However, the greenback regathered strength on hawkish Fed commentary and forced the pair to turn south.


Gold struggles to capitalize on weak NFP data, holds near $1,770

Gold spiked to a daily high near $1,780 with the initial market reaction to the disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US but seems to be having a difficult time preserving its bullish momentum with the 10-year US T-bond yield staying resilient.

Gold News

The bull and the bear case for BTC

Bitcoin price saw a bullish impulse that faced massive headwinds before it tagged a crucial psychological barrier. Bitcoin is likely to experience massive volatility as the situation resolves over time. 

Read more

Cyber Monday 2021 Discounts!

Glued to your trading screen on Cyber Monday? Upgrade your skills by signing up for FXStreet’s Premium service, offered at a discount of up to 50%. Fellow traders have already taken advantage of Black Friday profits. What about you? 

Subscribe now!