Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/CHF 4H Chart: Triangle
Comment: USD/CHF is currently consolidating after a decline as a result of the pair testing 1.0320. Since a triangle is a continuation pattern, a close beneath the up-trend and a follow-up sell-off to 0.96 is considered to be more likely than a break-out to the upside. Another strong bearish argument is the fact that the rate has broken through the long-term SMA. However, we must admit that there are also plenty of reasons to be bullish. For example, while the near-term indicators are mixed, the weekly studies are pointing upwards. At the same time, the distribution between the long and short positions is heavily skewed in favour of the former that take up 74% of the market.
GBP/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: The outlook on GBP/NZD is strongly bearish. The currency pair has formed a high-quality channel, which implies an immediate sell-off from 2.1688. Moreover, four-hour, daily and weekly indicators are giving ‘sell’ signals, and a majority of positions are long, implying there is plenty of room for new sellers. The June low at 2.1344 is unlikely to play an important role in the evolution of the exchange rate, but it may well trigger a bullish correction within the pattern. In the meantime, in case the bulls overpower bears near the falling resistance line, the new target will be set at 2.1940, which is the weekly pivot point, followed by the monthly S2 at 2.2170 and by the December 17 high at 2.2310.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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