Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
XAU/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Although on Monday it still seemed that the gold was going to resume last week’s rally, on Tuesday the price plunged through the key mark of 1,150 dollars. As a result, XAU/USD is now in a bearish channel. The yellow metal is expected to bounce off of the down-trend line at 1,130 and thus start a journey towards the lower boundary of the pattern and the August 18 low at 1,110. The bearish outlook will be invalidated in case the 200-hour SMA is breached. This will imply an extension of a recovery back to the August 24 high at 1,1170. As for the positioning of the SWFX market participants, 56% of traders are currently holding long positions and 44% are holding short positions.
EUR/GBP 1H Chart: Triangle
Comment: Despite the fact that EUR/GBP failed to sustain upward momentum after hitting 0.7420, we retain a bullish outlook. The main reason is formation of a triangle, a continuation pattern, and the period Aug 19-24 was bullish for the Euro. Once breached to the upside, the figure implies a 140-pip move, but we must take into account resistances at 0.7364 and 0.7424. The latter is formed by the weekly R2 and Aug 24 high.
At the same time, a close below 0.7310 should lead to a sell-off down to 0.7190, where the weekly pivot point meets the long-term moving average. In the meantime, the traders are sceptical of a rally, being that 57.5% of all open positions are short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after German inflation data
EUR/USD trades modestly higher on the day above 1.0700. The data from Germany showed that the annual HICP inflation edged higher to 2.4% in April. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.3% and helped the Euro hold its ground.
USD/JPY recovers above 156.00 following suspected intervention
USD/JPY recovers ground and trades above 156.00 after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. Later this week, Federal Reserve's policy decisions and US employment data could trigger the next big action.
Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week
Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.
Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week Premium
Two main macroeconomic events this week could attempt to sway the crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC), which showed strength last week, has slipped into a short-term consolidation.
Five Fundamentals for the week: Fed fears, Nonfarm Payrolls, Middle East promise an explosive week Premium
Higher inflation is set to push Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues to a hawkish decision. Nonfarm Payrolls are set to rock markets, but the ISM Services PMI released immediately afterward could steal the show.