Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Taking into account the latest fluctuations of USD/TRY, there is supposedly a bearish channel forming on the four-hour chart. The US Dollar might recover in the short run, but the rally is likely to be stopped near 2.66, where the monthly pivot point merges with the down-trend line and 200-period SMA. Then we will look for the exchange rate to target the lower boundary of the pattern at 2.54. However, it must be noted that the long-term outlook is bullish, being that for the time being the sell-off from 2.74 is considered to be a bearish correction of the rally that was started in the first half of the previous year. As for the SWFX sentiment, 72% of traders are short the Greenback.
EUR/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: As suggested by the four-hour and daily technical indicators, the outlook on EUR/PLN is currently bullish. However, in the near term the upside is limited by the rising resistance line at 4.14, meaning we need a down-leg for a good buying opportunity to present itself. Meanwhile, we should also recognize that being long is somewhat risky, being that EUR/PLN has not yet confirmed a reversal after the Jan-Apr decline, and most weekly studies are pointing south. Nonetheless, the SWFX market appears to be confident that the Euro is going to outperform the Zloty, since there are almost twice as many bulls (66%) as there are bears (34%).
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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