Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: USD/PLN has been trading in a distinct down-trend since May 11, and the tendency is likely to persist. In the near-term the rallies are to be capped by the falling resistance line at 3.55, while the target is 3.5050, where the lower boundary of the channel coincides with the 2011 Dec low. The negative outlook is reinforced by the technical indicators, which are mostly pointing south on the hourly and four-hour charts. On the other hand, in case the price closes above 3.55, we can expect either the weekly PP at 3.58 or the 200-hour SMA at 3.6040 to prevent further recovery of the US Dollar. At the same time, the SWFX sentiment is bearish, as 68% of open positions are short.
AUD/JPY 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: AUD/JPY appears to be a good buy right now, considering that it retreated to 95.70, where the price is supposed to be underpinned by the rising trend-line and weekly pivot point. The currency pair is expected to turn around here and then surpass the May 14 high while on its way towards the upper trend-line of the pattern at 99.00. Alternatively, if the support level fails to trigger sufficient buying, the sell-off will likely extend at least down to 94.50, where the weekly S1 merges with the May 11 low. A stronger demand area is at 93.50, created by the May 5 low, monthly PP, and 200-period SMA. As for the sentiment in the market, most traders expect the Aussie to appreciate, namely 74% of them.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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