Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR is still locked inside 1.3750-1.3850 range and is currently trading close to 1.3780 intermediate support. The H&S figure is almost complete with the 1.3740 neckline. Breaking below will confirm the model. And it all will be perfect if we haven't a negative Ichimoku cloud below, we have also a quite strong support at 1.3710-20 area, but a push through it is possible. However i think that any push to the downside will be used to open a fresh LONG positions and within the next 10 days i expect the price to test the 1.3860-80 resistance once again. So be careful and move the stop loss too. EUR is trading calm ahead of today's economic data releases, today and tomorrow it is quite possible the economic data to be in favor of the dollar. As the price is below 1.3805 the EUR is in a correction lower mode. Breaking below 1.3740 will trigger some SL and the price will drop in a high speed below 1.3720 to 1.3700 or even more. To the upside we need a H4 close above 1.3850 to restore the upside movement and to test 1.3880 resistance.
GOLD has failed to return above 1320 and now the target is at 1290-1268. We have still the 1300 support to break and we have to close the day below it to continue with the downside move. At 1300 we have also the Senkou Span B on monthly frame,so this is a really important level. Monthly close below will set the target below 1200. And to continue with the upside we need a Monthly close above 1345. I think the current downside correction to continue to 1275-1280 and from there to reverse back to the upside with target 1340. Let's see what will happen.
NZD is trying to record a fresh high after strong recovery against the dollar, the target here is 0.8675 high since april 2013. If we reach it it will be good to sell there are the pair needs a correction to the downside with 0.8570 target.
AUD has gained strongly against the dollar too, but seems that the downside correction will start at any moment here with attacking 0.9200 support first followed by 0.9150-40. The pair is strongly bullish on Daily and the outlook will remain bullish as the price is above 0.9140. Aud will try to close the week above 0.9200 and if this happens it will be easier to attack 0.9400 next week.
JPY doesn't allow the dollar to even test 102.40 only a daily close above will increase the pressure over the JPY. For now the pair is trading with a bearish tone with 102.35-102.40 strong resistance area.
GBP has made some progress and entered the H4 negative Ichimoku at the place where it is easy to break to the upside.The pair will use 1.6550 as support, but breaking below will destroy the upside outlook and the GBP may drop again below 1.6500. Daily resistance here is 1.6620, while daily support is 1.6520.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.3805 SL 1.3790 TP 1.3830-1.3850-1.3880
SHORT EUR below 1.3840 SL 1.3855 TP 1.3780-1.3750-1.3730-1.3710
SHORT GOLD below 1308 SL 1312 TP 1300-1292-1288-1280-1278
LONG GOLD above 1320 SL 1315 TP 1330-1336-1340
Good luck!
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