KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Crude
November’s contract on Brent expired yesterday in a relatively deep discount to December’s contract which basically means that the price of oil is seen a bit higher today in early trading. The new front-month contract on Brent is trading slightly below 86 USD/barrel level; yet, Brent is set to post quite sharp losses for the fourth week in a row.
Yesterday, oil has been supported by lower than expected figure on US initial claims while a sharp build in US crude oil stockpiles (which has been at least partly offset by decline in gasoline inventories as refineries cut utilization rates) had only a negligible impact.
Base Metals
Base metals prices were under a relatively strong selling pressure over the past two days and three month copper price (LME) fell to a six-month low yesterday. This time, overall demand worries and continuing sell-off in equity markets have probably played a role rather than effects of US dollar (which in fact slightly weakened yesterday).
Regarding the strong US initial jobless claims data (the figure was the lowest since April 2000) released yesterday, its impact has also been negligible although it somehow softened rather negative news from the US from the day before (Empire manufacturing, retail sales).
Chart of the day:
The oil price is seen sharply lower vis-à-vis a year ago…
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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