The short-term rally off the key 100.00 yen support level in August was not sustained and USDJPY appears to have peaked at 104.31, which was hit on September 2. Prices are finding resistance at the downtrend line (upper downward channel line) and the near term bias has turned neutral.
If trading is sustained above the 50-day moving average around 102.69 and if RSI remains above 50, this could help upside momentum bounce back. Prices would need to rise towards the key 104.00 level to bring the short term bias back to the upside. A fall below the 50-day moving average (102.69) would see a deeper decline towards the 100.00 support level.
Looking at the bigger picture, USDJPY has been in a downtrend since December 2015 (from highs of 123.66). The market would need to rise above the 200-day moving average and above the 111.00 level in order to see a shift in the underlying bearish market structure.
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