Euro under strong pressure post ECB, Greece in near-term focus

EURUSD

The Euro accelerated lower yesterday, on widely expected ECB’s QE decision. Continuation of strong bearish trend, marked fall of 2.1% yesterday, with fresh lows 12-year lows being posted on today’s extension below psychological 1.13 support. Yesterday’s long red candle maintains downside pressure, along with strong bearish tone, persisting on all timeframes. The pair now looks for 1.1210 target, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.8225/1.6039 ascend, with psychological 1.10 support, seen in extension. Oversold conditions, however, suggest consolidative / corrective actions, ahead of fresh push lower. Initial resistances lay at 1.1370, Asia’s high, then, ahead more significant 1.1458, former low of 16 Jan, with extended corrective attempts, expected to be limited at 1.1540, previous consolidation floor. Near-term focus now shifts towards Sunday’s elections in Greece, which may have further negative impact on the Euro.

Res: 1.1312; 1.1372; 1.1400; 1.1458
Sup: 1.1250; 1.1210; 1.1100; 1.1000





GBPUSD

Cable came under pressure with yesterday’s acceleration through previous low at 1.5032, completing near-term consolidative phase and fresh weakness eventually broke psychological 1.50 support. Yesterday’s long red candle, after repeated Dojis, confirms bearish resumption, with weekly close below 1.50 handle, required to open way towards next targets at 1.4910, Fibonacci 61.8% of multi-year 1.3501/1.7189 ascend and March 2013 higher base at 1.4830/12. Initial resistance lies at 1.5025, session’s high, ahead of solid barriers at 1.5050 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5210/1.4955 downleg and previous range lows, which should ideally cap corrective attempts. Only extension and close above 1.5100/20 zone, round-figure barrier / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5210/1.4955 / yesterday’s intraday low, would undermine near-term bears and shift focus towards upper breakpoints above 1.52 barrier.

Res: 1.5025; 1.5050; 1.5100; 1.5120
Sup: 1.4950; 1.4910; 1.4830; 1.4812





USDJPY

The pair regained some strength and bounced from 117.20 zone, where higher base is forming, however, lack of momentum to eventually clear pivotal 118.85 barrier, keeps the price action with limited upside. While daily 20SMA and Ichimoku cloud top cap rallies, near-term movements are expected to hold within 117.20/118.85 range. Mixed studies, with positive near-term and still weak daily technicals, are supportive for such scenario in the near-term. Sustained break and weekly close above 118.85, is required for bullish resumption towards next barriers at 120 zone, while repeated failures to break higher, would keep the downside vulnerable.

Res: 118.85; 119.30; 119.57; 120.00
Sup: 118.00; 117.73; 117.20; 116.90





AUDUSD

The pair remains under pressure and extends weakness of past one week, to complete 0.8031/0.8293 corrective phase and eventually take out psychological 0.8000 support, on today’s acceleration lower. As the pair is poised for strong weekly bearish close, end of week’s trading below 0.8000 handle, is needed to confirm strong bearish stance for further weakness. Immediate target at 1.7945, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079, 2008/2011 ascend, is under pressure, with break here to open next support at 0.7700, July 2009 low. Corrective rallies are expected to hold below 0.8135, yesterday’s high and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.8234/0.7963 downleg.

Res: 0.8000; 0.8031; 0.8066; 0.8097
Sup: 0.7945; 0.7900; 0.7850; 0.7800