Technical analysis: EUR/JPY gains traction after push above 200-day SMA

EURJPY has found some positive footing at 129.61, which happens to be a level of confluence and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 125.08 until 134.12. Positive factors that may contribute to reviving upside momentum are the persistent backing of the positive structure by the 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), together with the easing in the 50-day SMA’s negative bearing.

The short-term oscillators are also suggesting a growing bullish drive. The MACD has nudged a tad above its red trigger line, while the RSI has rebounded off the 50 threshold and is improving in the bullish region. The stochastic oscillator is also promoting additional gains in the pair.

If the current price trajectory persists, buyers may face a primary resistance zone between the 38.2% Fibo of 130.66 and the 100-day SMA at 131.00. Surpassing the upper Bollinger band and the 131.00 hurdle could propel the pair towards the 23.6% Fibo at 132.00 ahead of the 132.42-132.69 barricade overhead. In the event buyers manage to acquire even more ground, they may then challenge the near 40-month region of peaks between 133.57 and 134.12.

To the downside, sellers will need to initially drive the price beneath the 50.0% Fibo of 129.61, simultaneously breaching the 50- and 200-day SMAs as well as the mid-Bollinger band, which are converging at this level. Moving down from this critical mark, sellers could then meet the 61.8% Fibo of 128.52 prior to testing the lower Bollinger band at 128.20 and the adjacent trough of 127.92. Resuming the decline, the pair may hit the 76.4% Fibo of 127.24 before the 126.09 low comes into play.

Summarizing, EURJPY is sustaining a neutral-to-bullish tone in the medium-term as the price holds above the 50.0% Fibo of 129.61 and the 200-day SMA. In the short-term picture a stronger price move could evolve with a break either below 127.92 or above 131.00.