• After a snooze on the Fourth of July, markets return to full action on Thursday.
  • Five big events await traders with the best kept for last.

When the US is away, the whole world is somewhat sleepy, with markets thinned out and listless on Wednesday. American and other traders will return to the action on Thursday and a very busy schedule awaits them, centered mostly in the American session.

Here are the five big events to watch out for

1) 10:00 GMT: Carney speaks out

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech in Newcastle The public appearance comes one day ahead of the US imposing tariffs on China and the heated debate in the UK government about the future relations with Europe. If the influential central banker touches on both topics, broad markets will be on the move. Any concerns can cause shivers.

On the domestic front, UK figures have been quite upbeat, especially the Services PMI and the upgrade for Q1 GDP. Optimism about the economy could raise the chances for a rate hike in August and lift the pound, while ignoring these developments could turn the tables against cable.

2) 12:15:  ADP NFP

ADP's jobs report for the private sector is published on Thursday instead of on Wednesday due to the holiday, leaving traders with less time to digest the data in preparation for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. Job growth has been steady in May but could go either way in June.

See how to trade the ADP NFP with EUR/USD.

3) 14:00: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The services sector report provides valuable forward-looking information about the largest sector in the US. Also, it is the last hint towards Friday's jobs report. The reaction to the publication also depends on the ADP report. If both publications beat expectations, the US Dollar could provide the full positive response on the second release. The same goes the other way around: two misses will see a robust downside reaction on the second release, the ISM figure.

See how to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI with EUR/USD.

4) 15:00 Crude Oil Inventories 

Oil prices are on a roll, hitting the highest levels since 2014. One of the three upward oil drivers was the big drawdown in oil inventories last week. Similar to the ADP report, the publication has been postponed to Thursday due to the holiday. Tuesday's private report showed yet another drop in inventories and the black gold remains bid.

Apart from the impact on oil prices and the Canadian Dollar, an oil exporting nation, there are global implications as well. Higher oil prices are, at times, correlated with a weaker US Dollar. This has not happened in this cycle, but if prices spiral higher, the correlation could make a comeback.

5) 18:00: FOMC Meeting Minutes

The last word of the busy day belongs to the No. 1 influencer on the US Dollar and markets: the Federal Reserve. The Fed publishes the minutes from the "hawkish hike" decision in June. Not only did they raise rates, but also upgraded their forecast and signaled two additional increases this year. Moreover, Fed Chair Powell was bullish on the economy, and the statement was somewhat sanguine on inflation.

Powell hardly touched on trade and only said that some business contacts have expressed concern. It is important to note that the document is not a raw publication of what happened back then but rather a carefully edited paper that has markets in mind.

If the Minutes contain lengthy paragraphs about trade issues, it could have an impact, especially on the eve of a significant shot in the trade war: the imposition of tariffs on China. The US Dollar could suffer if the Fed takes trade into serious consideration.

 On the other hand, if the message remains optimistic about job growth, inflation, wages, etc., the US Dollar could get another boost and rate hike expectations could further rise.

All in all, this is a busy day and there are no World Cup matches to distract traders from markets. 

More: Trade War from the Trenches: everything you need to know about the 3 big battles ahead

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended Content

Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD drops towards 7000 amid resurgent USD demand

AUD/USD drops towards 7000 amid resurgent USD demand

AUD/USD is easing back towards 0.7000,  fading the rebound led by China's central bank LPR rate cut. A US dollar rebound, despite improving mood, weighs heavily on the aussie. The pair ignores the uptick in the S&P 500 futures. 


EUR/USD skids to near 1.0550 as risk-on impulse fades, Eurozone data eyed

EUR/USD skids to near 1.0550 as risk-on impulse fades, Eurozone data eyed

The EUR/USD pair has witnessed a minor fall after breaching the early Asian session’s consolidation formed in a narrow range of 1.0579-1.0588 as the risk-off impulse rebounded. The asset has slipped to near 1.0550 and is expected to remain uncertain.


Gold bulls recapture 200-DMA, more gains likely? Premium

Gold bulls recapture 200-DMA, more gains likely?

Gold Price is headed for the first weekly gain in five weeks this Friday, despite posting small losses, in the wake of a sharp rebound in the US dollar. The dollar recovers its ground even though risk sentiment remains in a fairly better spot, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.65% on the day. 

Gold News

How to trade the next 20% upswing in Binance Coin price

How to trade the next 20% upswing in Binance Coin price

Binance Coin price is on a recovery rally and shows promise of a further uptrend. Adding credence to this run-up is the price inefficiency that is likely to propel BNB higher. Binance Coin price crashed to $205 on May 13 as the crypto markets crumbled due to the LUNA-UST debacle.

Read more

Tesla regains $700 despite cut from S&P 500 ESG Index

Tesla regains $700 despite cut from S&P 500 ESG Index

Tesla's stock slips as it is kicked out of the S&P 500 ESG index. Elon Musk reacts aggressively, calling it a scam. Growth fears dominated and weighed on the overall market mood, leading to a negative close on major Wall Street indices. 

Read more