How to trade the US ADP NFP with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.69 deviation (161.83 ) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1720

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.69 or less(161.83 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 25 pips in the first 15 minutes and 70 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1690 capped the pair on June 29th. A more serious hurdle is the June 22nd peak of 1.1720. Much higher on the topside, the swing high of 1.1850 is next.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.79 deviation (189.98) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1590

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.79 or higher(189.98 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 25  pips in the first 15 minutes and 65 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1615 separated ranges in late June. 1.1590 was a low point on July 2nd. It is followed by 1.1540 which is the last defense before the 2018 trough of 1.1508. 

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

The July 4th holiday moves the publication time to Thursday and also implies lower liquidity. This could impact the movements as well. 

See: ADP + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Preview: last minute hints could raise expectations for Friday's NFP

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 12 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 39 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.63 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 15 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 51 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.