How to trade the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.69 deviation (57.13 ) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1720

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.69 or less(57.13 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go down reaching a range of 30 pips in the first 15 minutes and 107 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1690 was the high point in late June. The next resistance line is the June 22nd top of 1.1720. 1.1850 held the pair down on June 14th.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.93 deviation (60.08 ) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1590

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.93 or higher(60.08 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 22  pips in the first 15 minutes and 69 pips in the following 4 hours. 

1.1615 separated ranges in late June and serves as an initial line of support. 1.1590 was a low point on July 2nd. It is followed by 1.1540 which is the last defense before the 2018 trough of 1.1508. Even lower, 1.1480 capped the pair back in July 2017.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

After the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI, the parallel non-manufacturing version could also come out above expectations.  

See: ADP + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Preview: last minute hints could raise expectations for Friday's NFP

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 34 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a positive surprise of 0.60 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 10 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 31 pips 4 hours thereafter

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.