How to trade the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI with EUR/USD

The is the last hint towards the NFP and a market mover on its own as well.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
The EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 34 pips in the following 4 hours.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.69 deviation (57.13 ) [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: 1.1720

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.69 or less(57.13 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go down reaching a range of 30 pips in the first 15 minutes and 107 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1690 was the high point in late June. The next resistance line is the June 22nd top of 1.1720. 1.1850 held the pair down on June 14th.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.93 deviation (60.08 ) [SELL Pair]

Key Support Level: 1.1590

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.93 or higher(60.08 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 22 pips in the first 15 minutes and 69 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1615 separated ranges in late June and serves as an initial line of support. 1.1590 was a low point on July 2nd. It is followed by 1.1540 which is the last defense before the 2018 trough of 1.1508. Even lower, 1.1480 capped the pair back in July 2017.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

After the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI, the parallel non-manufacturing version could also come out above expectations.

See: ADP + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Preview: last minute hints could raise expectations for Friday's NFP

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 34 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a positive surprise of 0.60 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 10 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 31 pips 4 hours thereafter

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold languishes below $4,200 amid high US yields

Gold trims some losses on Monday, but remains trapped within previous ranges, with upside attempts limited below $4,200 and with two-month lows of $4,110 at a short distance. The recent pullback on the US Dollar Index has provided some support for precious metals although the high US Treasury yields are keeping a floor on US Dollar dips so far.

Pi Network risks a steeper decline as bearish momentum builds

Pi Network extends losses below $0.090 maintaining a steady decline for the fifth consecutive day. The retail demand remains firm, with the notional value of active perpeutals holding above $10 million. The technical outlook for PI remains bearish as bearish momentum mounts.

ISM Services PMI expected to show robust US economy in September

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to improve marginally in September. The US services sector is expected to remain well into expansionary territory. Bets of further Fed tightening appear to have lost traction in the last few days.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.