Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish spending data up to and including 23 March shows that the massive shifts in consumption that have taken place since early March, notably since the announcement of extensive lockdown measures on 11 March, have continued.
Travel related spending took an early hit (hotel spending is down 90 percent). Services and entertainment spending is significantly down, as a number of service industries have been shut down completely (for example, cinema spending has fallen to zero), and others, such as restaurants, are only open to a very limited extent, resulting in a 70 percent decline in spending.
The first wave of the spending decline was in services, but we are starting to see reduced spending on a number of goods, such as clothing and consumer durables. However, some spending types, like hardware stores, are holding up, as Danes undertake home-improvement projects while under lockdown.
At the other end of the spectrum, spending in grocery stores shot up and almost doubled on Thursday 12 March and Tuesday 17 March. Since then grocery spending seems to have stabilised at around 20-30 percent above spending last March.
Without the surges in grocery store spending, total spending (as defined here, not in national accounts), has started to slip. With the lockdown extended to mid-April, we do not expect to see a turnaround in the figures, but rather a continued deterioration in a number of spending categories.
On the following two pages we detail the developments in spending by type.
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