Prior to the nonfarm payrolls release, the dollar looked strong and many wondered whether the beleaguered currency had finally bottomed out. All eyes were on the average hourly earnings part of the report and as it turned out, the 0.3% reading was indeed bang in line with the expectations, which lifted the year-on-year wage growth rate to a good 2.7%. But that’s where the good news ended. The headline non-farm payrolls figure disappointed badly at +103,000 compared to about +190,000 expected. The weather was blamed for the soft jobs growth. What’s more, the January payrolls figure was revised down from +239,000 to +176,000, while February was revised up from +313,000 to +326,000. This left a net revision of -50,000 jobs over the two months. In a way it was the complete opposite of what had happened last month. Then, the headline jobs figure smashed expectations, but the average weekly earnings number turned out to be a lot softer than expected. This time, the earnings figure was strong, albeit in line with the expectations, while the disappointment was provided by the actual jobs numbers.

Following the publication of the March employment report, market participants were left with more questions than answers about the pace of the Fed’s policy tightening in the future. So they sold the dollar and this helped to support buck-denominated gold, as well as the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs. The USD/JPY fell back to 107.00 short-term support level. Overall, though, Friday’s NFP report was by no means a game changer. The Fed is still likely to raise interest rates at least two more times this year. But this is fully baked in, and void of any fresh stimulus, the dollar is struggling to make a more meaningful comeback.

CPI, trade in focus

The dollar may have a better chance of a comeback next week when the latest consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation is published on Wednesday. But then again who is to say that the data will necessarily top expectations and thus lead to a dollar recovery? What’s more, ongoing concerns over Donald Trump’s protectionist policies may also work against a dollar recovery after China retaliated with the introduction of its own tariffs on imports of 100+ US products. This seems to have annoyed US President Donald Trump. He criticised China’s tit-for-tat response, saying “rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers…” and “in light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the [US Trade Representative] to consider whether $100bn of additional tariffs would be appropriate . . . and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs.” 

Aside from the publication of CPI and ongoing trade tensions, the only other fundamental event that one needs to keep an eye on is the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes, also on Wednesday. The rest of next week’s economic data are not too important. Thus, unless the CPI beats expectations, the dollar may struggle to find support. And with ongoing trade tensions weighing on risk sentiment, next week could see safe haven and buck denominated assets like gold and to a lesser degree, silver, shine.

Range-bound gold posts tentative bullish signal

Gold was actually in the process of forming a bullish engulfing candle on its daily chart. If it manages to close above Thursday’s range and resistance at $1335 then this should give the green light for bullish speculators to step back in on gold after the recent pullback. Overall however, gold remains inside a wide range and there’s no clear long-term directional bias. That could eventually change if the metal were to break back above its trend line and the next resistance in the $1350s area, or if it breaks below $1300 support. Given Friday’s bullish-looking price action, we wouldn’t want to see gold go below $1320 now. If it does, it will most likely then continue towards, and possibly below, $1300 next.  

Trading leveraged products such as FX, CFDs and Spread Bets carry a high level of risk which means you could lose your capital and is therefore not suitable for all investors. All of this website’s contents and information provided by Fawad Razaqzada elsewhere, such as on telegram and other social channels, including news, opinions, market analyses, trade ideas, trade signals or other information are solely provided as general market commentary and do not constitute a recommendation or investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our disclaimer, terms and policies.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Gold gives away some gains, slips back to $2,980

Gold gives away some gains, slips back to $2,980

Gold retraced from its earlier all-time highs above the key $3,000 mark on Friday, finding a footing around $2,980 per troy ounce. Profit-taking, rising US yields, and a shift to a risk-on environment seem to be putting the brakes on further gains for the metal.

Gold News
EUR/USD remains firm and near the 1.0900 barrier

EUR/USD remains firm and near the 1.0900 barrier

EUR/USD is finding its footing and trading comfortably in positive territory as the week wraps up, shaking off two consecutive daily pullbacks and setting its sights back on the pivotal 1.0900 mark—and beyond.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD remains depressed, treads water in the low-1.2900s

GBP/USD remains depressed, treads water in the low-1.2900s

GBP/USD is holding steady in consolidation territory after Friday’s opening bell on Wall Street, hovering in the low-1.2900 range. This resilience comes despite disappointing UK data and persistent selling pressure on the USD.

GBP/USD News
Crypto Today: BNB, OKB, BGB tokens rally as BTC, Shiba Inu and Chainlink lead market rebound

Crypto Today: BNB, OKB, BGB tokens rally as BTC, Shiba Inu and Chainlink lead market rebound

Cryptocurrencies sector rose by 0.13% in early European trading on Friday, adding $352 million in aggregate valuation. With BNB, OKB and BGB attracting demand amid intense market volatility, the exchange-based native tokens sector added $1.9 billion.

Read more
Week ahead – Central banks in focus amid trade war turmoil

Week ahead – Central banks in focus amid trade war turmoil

Fed decides on policy amid recession fears. Yen traders lock gaze on BoJ for hike signals. SNB seen cutting interest rates by another 25bps. BoE to stand pat after February’s dovish cut.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025