Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th June, 2015

In line with Gold analysis, I have a bull and a bear Elliott wave count for Silver.

Price will tell us which one is correct, but before that happens structure and volume will indicate which is more likely.

Bull Wave Count

If cycle wave a is over and Silver, Gold and GDX have all recently seen cycle degree trend changes, then importantly for Silver cycle wave a subdivides as a double zigzag.

A double zigzag is a multiple, and the maximum number of corrective structures in a multiple is three. Any wave count which labels W, Y or Z as W-X-Y within them is invalid. W, Y and Z waves may only be simple corrective structures labelled A-B-C (or A-B-C-D-E in the case of a triangle).

Super Cycle II may not be a multiple and must be a flat correction. Within a flat correction the A wave must be a three, and a double zigzag is classified as a three.

Within a flat correction, cycle wave b must retrace a minimum 90% the length of cycle wave a at 46.279.

Within a flat correction, cycle wave b may make a new all time high above the start of cycle wave a, as in an expanded flat.

The most likely structure for cycle wave b to take price that high is a zigzag.

If cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag, then within it primary wave A should be a five wave structure, either an impulse or a leading diagonal.

At 22.485 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse, and within it minor wave 1 looks like a five on the daily chart. Minor wave 2 should now be over, but if it continues lower it may not move below the start of minor wave 1 below 15.296.

A new high above 18.486 would invalidate the bear wave count and provide confidence in this bull wave count.

Bear Wave Count

This bear wave count is identical to the bull wave count up to the end of the triangle for intermediate wave (B) within the second zigzag of primary wave Y.

Thereafter, it looks at the possibility that intermediate wave (C) within the zigzag is not over.

Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 1 fits as a five better than the bull wave count. Minor wave 2 now though looks to be too large on the weekly and daily chart.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 18.486.

At 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

I have drawn a base channel about minor waves 1 and 2. The breach of this base channel is some cause for concern for the bear wave count now.

Minute wave ii has breached the base channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2, one degree higher. Base channels often work to show where lower degree corrections find support/resistance, but not always. This wave count remains viable.

Minute wave ii should now be a complete zigzag. The middle of a third wave down may now be underway for Silver, along with Gold.