Risk appetite finds some legs after China noted of a reciprocal phased rollback of tariffs if a trade deal is reached

Notes/Observations

- China MOFCOM says agreement has been reached with the U.S. to lift tariffs in phases as deal progresses

- German industrial production data misses expectations; dims some recent optimism stabilization of data in the region; German manufacturers appeared mired in recession

Asia:

- Australia Sept Trade Balance (A$): 7.1B v 5.1Be

Europe/Mideast:

- ECB Holzmann (Austria): Monetary policy seems to reached its end; fiscal policy has to take over

Brexit:

- YouGov general election poll: Conservatives 36% (-2), Labour 25% (unch), Lib Dems 17% (+1), Brexit Party 11% (unch)

Americas:

- Senior Trump administration official stated that a Trump-Xi meeting could be delayed until Dec as talks continued over terms and venue; still possible that a US-China trade agreement would not be reached, but deal was more likely than not

 

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.37% at 406.56, FTSE +0.27% at 7,416.95, DAX +0.84% at 13,290.21, CAC-40 +0.28% at 5,883.41, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 9,455.00, FTSE MIB +0.61% at 23,515.50, SMI +0.12% at 10,330.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.44%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade higher across the board with the Dax outperforming on trade deal optimism, following on from a firmer session in Asia and higher US Index futures. On a busy morning for corporate earnings, major Dax component Siemens trades almost 5% higher on profits which beat forecasts, and upbeat guidance; Lufthansa also rises sharply on higher on better than expected results; Steel giant Arcelor Mittal outperforms on an earnings beat on stronger European shipments, while Zurich Re also gains on a rise in GWP. Other notable gainers include Lehto Group, Superdry, RSA Group, and Sodexo among others. German telecom's name Deutsche Telecom declines over 2.5% on earnings and dividend cut; Rolls Royce also declines as the company lowered their outlook, while Commerzbank reverses earlier gains as the company cuts its full year targets. Other notable decliners include SMA Solar, ProSiebenSat, Legrand, Munich Re, and Veolia. In other news Salino Impregilo declines almost 10% following a capital increase, with Ascom gaining on the announcement of a new CEO. Looking ahead notable earners include Cardinal Health, Johnson Controls, Teva and Keurig Dr Pepper among others.

 

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Lufthansa [LHA.DE] +8.5% (earnings), Persimmon [PSN.UK] +2.5% (earnings), Heidelberger Druckmaschien [HDD.DE] +3% (earnings

- Materials: ArcelorMittal [MT.NL] +6% (earnings)

- Energy: Engie [ENGI.FR] -4% (earnings)

- Financials: Unicredit [UCG.IT] +4.5% (earnings), Generali [G.IT] +3.5% (earnings), Lehto Group [LEHTO.FI] +15% (earnings), Commerzbank [CBK.DE] -4% (earnings; outlook cut)

- Healthcare: Roche [ROG.CH] +0.5% (drug failed)

- Industrials: Siemens [SIE.DE] +4.5% (earnings), Skanska [SKAB.SE] +5.5% (earnings; contract), Aston Martin [AML.UK] +3% (profit warning), Leoni [LEO.DE] +4% (earnings), Rolls-Royce [RR.UK] -1.5% (trading update)

- Telecom: Deutsche Telecom [DTE.DE] -3% (earnings)

 

Speakers

- ECB Economic Bulletin noted that incoming data pointed to moderate but positive economic growth In H2. Reiterated view that risks were tilted to the downside

- ECB Holzmann (Austria): Negative interest rates send the wrong signal and should end

- EU Commission Autumn Forecasts cut the EU-19 2020 GDP growth outlook from 1.4% to 1.2%. EU cut Italy 2020 GDP from 0.7% to 0.4%

- Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina reiterated stance that still had room to ease monetary policy further. Could adjust its neutral range if necessary

- Turkey President Erdogan: Terrorists have yet to leave the buffer zone in Syria and would talk to Russia President Putin soon on Syria

- Turkey Fin Min Albayrak reiterates view that expected economic indicators to improve in the coming months into year end

- Japan PM Abe reiterates domestic economy was on a moderate recovery trend but needed to watch overseas factors

- Japan Econ Min Nishimura: There was no decision made on whether to compile economic package

- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): If China and US reached Phase 1 deal, both sides must cancel existing tariffs at the same time, with the same proportion based on agreement. MOFCOM noted that both China and US had agreed to 'cancel existing tariffs in different phases'. How much tariffs should be cancelled for the Phase 1 agreement could be negotiated. No information on any venue of Xi/Trump meeting.

- China said to consider removing restrictions on poultry imports from the US

 

Currencies/ Fixed Income

- Initial risk aversion sentiment on potential delay in signing of a 1st phase of a US-China trade agreement was squashed after a China Commerce official noted that the two sides agreed on a phase tariff rollback if a deal is reached.

- GBP/USD was little changed with focus is on whether the BOE provides any clues on future policy action at today's decision.

- USD/JPY was again testing the key resistance in the 109 neighborhood. Renewed optimism on the US-China trade front put pressures on safe-haven currencies

 

Economic Data

- (NL) Netherlands Oct CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.5%e

- (NL) Netherlands Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.6%e

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Gross Reserves: $54.3B v $54.9B prior; Net Reserves: $44.6B v $44.1B prior

- (DE) Germany Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -4.3% v -4.4%e

- (NO) Norway Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v -2.1% prior; Y/Y: -8.1% v -9.2% prior

- (NO) Norway Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 1.7% prior

- (DK) Denmark Sept Industrial Production M/M: +1.5% v -1.1% prior

- (CH) Swiss Q3 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 0.93 v 0.83 prior

- (FI) Finland Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.2B v -€0.2B prior

- (MY) Malaysia end-Oct Foreign Reserves: $103.2B v $103.3B prior

- (CZ) Czech Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.2% v 7.1%e; Retail Sales (ex Auto) Y/Y:7.3% v 6.7%e

- (CH) Swiss Oct Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 779.1B v 777.0B prior

- (CN) China Oct Foreign Reserves: $3.105T v $3.099Te

- (UK) Oct Halifax House Prices M/M: -0.1% v -0.4% prior; 3M/Y: 0.9% v 1.1% prior

- (DE) Germany Oct Construction PMI: 51.5 v 50.1 prior

- (SE) Sweden Oct Average House Prices (SEK): 3.057M v 3.042M prior

- (SE) Sweden Oct Budget Balance (SEK): +31.9B v -3.6B prior

- (IT) Italy Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8% prior

- (CZ) Czech Oct International Reserves: $147.1B v $143.8B prior

- (SG) Singapore Oct Foreign Reserves: $276.8B v $272.2B prior

- UN FAO World Food Price Index: 172.7 v 169.7 prior

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Sacci Business Confidence: 91.7 v 92.0e

- (GR) Greece Aug Unemployment Rate: 16.7% v 16.9% prior

**Fixed Income Issuance**

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €3.018B vs. €2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2024, 2029 and 2035 Bonds

- Sold €970M in 0.25% July 2024 SPGB bond; Avg yield: -0.199% v -0.221% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.30x v 2.62x prior

- Sold €1.012B in 0.60% Oct 2029 SPGB; Avg Yield: 0.295% v 0.253% prior, bid-to-cover: 2.30x v 2.45x prior

- Sold €1.036B in 1.85% July 2035 SPGB; Avg Yield: 0.699% v 0.649% prior, bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 1.73x prior

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €598M vs. €250-750M indicated range in 0.15% Nov 2023 inflation-linked bonds (SPGBei); Real Yield: -1.046% v -1.037% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.91x v 4.00x prior

- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold €9.988B vs. €8.5-10B indicated range in 2029, 2034, 2050 and 2066 bonds

- Sold €5.185B in 0.00% Nov 2029 Oat; Avg Yield: -0.03% v -0.24% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.12 x v 1.68x prior

- Sold €1.182B in 1.25% May 2034 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.24% v -0.03% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.84x v 1.95x prior

- Sold €2.50B in 1.50% May 2050 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.79% v 0.55% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.51x v 1.53x prior

- Sold €1.131B in 1.75% May 2066 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.95% v 1.81% prior, Bid-to-cover: 2.29x v 1.69x prior

 

Looking Ahead

- (EU) European Finance Ministers (Eurogroup) meet in Brussels

- (UK) Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) to update forecasts

- (IL) Israel Oct Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $119.5B prior

- (RU) Russia Oct Light Vehicle Car Sales Y/Y: -0.6%e v -0.2% prior

- (EG) Egypt Oct Net Reserves: No est v $45.1B prior; Gross Official Reserves: No est v 45.1B prior

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds (3 tranches)

- 05:30 (PL) Poland switch auction

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct CPI M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.6% prior

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Live Registry Monthly Change: No est v -0.2K prior; Live Registry Level: No est v 188.8K prior

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.2%e v +1.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.9%e v -1.8% prior

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.0% prior

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Oct Trade Balance: -$0.1Be v $0.0B prior; Total Exports: $5.3Be v $5.2B prior; Total Imports: $5.5Be v $5.2B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $2.8B prior

- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England Bank (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 0.75% prior

- 07:00 (UK) BOE Nov Minutes

- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England Bank (BOE) Monetary Policy Report (formally the Inflation Report)

- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank (CNB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Repurchase Rate unchanged at 2.00%

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Sept Nominal Wage M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.1% prior

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Oct CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.0% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.9% prior

- 07:30 (UK) BOE Gov Carney post rate decision press conference

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Official Reserves: No est v $120.9B prior

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 1st: No est v $539.9B prior

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:15 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Gov Rusnok to hold post Rate Decision press conference

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 215Ke v 218K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.68Me v 1.690M prior

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales

- 09:00 (HU) Turkey President Erdogan, Hungary PM Orban meet in Budapest

- 09:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -17.7B prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

- 11:00 (SE) Sweden Central bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Skinglsey participates on panel

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2 Year Bonds

- 13:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Minutes

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 30-year bonds

- 13:05 (US) Fed's Kaplan (dove, non-voter) in Dallas

- 15:00 (US) Sept Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $17.9B prior

- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank (BCRP) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at %

- 18:30 (JP) Japan Sept Household Spending Y/Y: 7.1%e v 1.0% prior

- 18:30 (JP) Japan Sept Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: 0.1%e v -0.1% prior (revised from -0.2%); Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.5% prior (revised from -0.6%)

- 19:10 (US) Fed's Bostic (dove, non-voter) on monetary policy

- 19:30 (AU) RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP)

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Sept Home Loans M/M: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior; Investment Lending: 1.5%e v 5.7% prior

- 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell inflation-linked 10-year bonds