The Dollar inches higher again yesterday and overnight

• The Dollar inches higher again yesterday and overnight.

• Replenishing the Oil Reserves?

Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals didn't lose yesterday... They didn't play! As the game was rained out, as dangerous storms ripped through St. Louis yesterday. I was glad I was down here where we had yet another absolutely beautiful day! We went to lunch with some friends on Wednesday, and sat outside, enjoying the weather, the food, and each other... Robert Palmer greets me this morning with his song: Sailing Shoes... This is song 1 from a 3 song set that goes together, but doesn't have to, with the other two songs: Hey Julia, and Sneaking Sally Through the Alley...

The dollar didn't gain anything yesterday, and it didn't really lose anything, as the BBDXY lost 1 index point yesterday. The euro pretty much stayed in place at 107.50... And the rest of the currencies, didn't really move either way on the day either... Gold gained $3 and Silver gained 20-cents on the day. There didn't appear to me to be much short paper trading yesterday, and I thank the Good Lord for small miracles! 

The price of Oil bounced higher yesterday by $2 and ended the day trading with a $79 handle. You don't think that Oil traders read my comment about them not hearing about a summer driving season do you? Nah... C'Mon Chuck, you can't really believe that could have happened? Why not? I mean stranger things in life sure have happened, haven't they? 

In the overnight markets last night... There wasn't that much movement i the dollar, up 1 index point in the BBDXY, Gold is flat this morning, and everything else falls into place... I read just now, that the price that the U.S. will pay to replenish its Oil reserves has been raised by a buck, to $79.. To me, it's a shame on the administration that we have to replenish the Oil reserves, since there was never a "catastrophe" that trigger the sale. The sale, in my opinion, was nothing more than a vote getter, and never really lowered the price of Oil, so now we have to replenish the supply... Makes no sense to me... But then... no, wait, Chuck you don't want to go there this morning, or ever... 

The price of Oil overnight remained in the $79 handle, and the 10-year saw it's yield blip higher to 4.50%... 

I have to say this about the moves yesterday and last night... That's the way markets used to move on daily basis, like big ships maneuvering in the open waters... Slow, steady, without interference... I'm just saying... 

You know, the last year that I spoke at the Vancouver Conference hosted by Agora, (2015) I told the audience then, that the total debt in the U.S. with consumers and businesses and Gov't had reached $50 Trillion... And the crowd gasped... And today? Well, today, total U.S. debt — household, business and government — approaches $100 trillion, I can hear you gasping... So, does this call for cheaper credit (lower interest rates) or does it call for lending to be more expensive and therefore shut down all the cheap borrowing that had gone on from 2008 to last year?  

Yes, interest rates are higher now than they were a year ago... But, lenders are still lending money at 2023 rates... Why would they do that? Because, otherwise they would be out of business... One could argue that if they keep lending at lower rates they'll eventually be out of business anyway... And one would be correct... But you see, here's what Banks have learned from the Gov't... Kick the can down the road, and it becomes someone else's problem in the future, not yours! 

And here's a longtime friend, Bill Bonner and his take on paying down the debt: "On the flip side of borrowing is repaying. Mathematically, the US could pay down its debt. It would require abandoning its global empire, however. And trimming domestic social welfare programs too. Politically, it is impossible to make those changes; like an alcoholic, the country will have to ‘hit bottom’ first. 

That leaves inflation as the only real option. The feds know that. They need to get the inflation rate up, not down, so that the real value of the government’s debt goes down to a more manageable level. That’s why, even with inflation at twice the Fed’s target, Powell is still insisting that the next move will be to lower rates, not raise them. "

Chuck again... I can always rely on Bill to set the record straight! I've always called for deficit spending to end... But the folks in D.C. never listened or paid attention, and they still won't do either, so like Bill says... Inflation it will be!  And to that I ask.... Got Gold?

Speaking of Gold... The Good folks at GATA sent me this note: U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, has re-introduced sound-money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion. "My view, which is backed up by language in the U.S. Constitution, is that gold and silver coins are money and are legal tender," Rep. Mooney said.

"If they're indeed U.S. money, it seems there should be no taxes on them at all. So why are we taxing these coins as collectibles?" ...

Chuck again... Yes, why are they taxed that way? Because somewhere along the road to financial ruin, the leaders removed Gold backing from the dollar, and put Gold into the freezer... Putting Gold out of the minds of individuals for years, and therefore it was never even thought of having the taxes removed from the metal...  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, didn't have anything for us except some Fed Head speeches, and today's Data Cupboard doesn't have much more, with only the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on the docket for today. 

To recap... The dollar is holding steady to the gains it made earlier in the week, Gold is still trying to put together the pieces of the rally it had going before the short paper trading engineered takedown. Chuck reminisces about when he used to be a speaker at the Vancouver Symposium... He made the audience gasp... And now he has gasped at how long ago that seems now... UGH! 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out something... And that is that the U.S. Administration doesn't have a clue how money works... read this and then tell me you don't agree with my claim: "Jared Bernstein, a longtime economic aide to President Biden and chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said that the U.S. cannot go bankrupt because we can print our own money. He failed to explain why the U.S. government chooses to borrow money when it prints the money. He was completely baffled by the time he finished trying to explain it. He said, “I guess I’m just, I can’t really, I don’t get it. I don’t know what they’re talking about.”

Chuck again... See? 

For What It's Worth... Well, I teased you with this article yesterday, and now it's here... This is about how we shouldn't pay attention the BLS's jobs reports.

Here's your snippet: " don't know how much trust we want to put into the monthly survey results released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, given that just last week, that same Bureau released a quarterly report that washed away a large chunk of what had been perceived overall job creation for 2023.

For the readers who may have just stumbled on to my stuff with this piece, the BLS also released their Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report for Q3 2023 last week and has largely been ignored by the financial media.

What the BED report does is measure employment by quarter, and with a sizable lag. The BED report is far more detailed than the monthly survey results, and makes for a very good analytical tool, but is useful in anything close to real time.

That said, economists know that this "BED" report is far more accurate than the monthly Establishment Survey that the financial media clings to, as the Establishment Survey is done in a hurry, polling just 670K employers. Those results are then extrapolated across the population, seasoned to taste and then reported to the public. The BED report is done quarterly and polls 9.1M employers. There is no doubt about which of these reports is more accurate.

What was released last week was the BED report for Q3 2023 (see the lag I spoke of). For that quarter, the BED report shows net job losses in the United States of 192K. Those are losses, not job creation. The Non-Farm Payrolls reports for that same quarter totaled 640K, implying robust job creation. That's an overstatement of 832K jobs. We know the 2023 NFP numbers were significantly bloated. The BLS knows this as well. Looking at Q2 2023, we see that the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls reports overstated job creation for that quarter by another 489K positions.

The overstatement in job creation over the six months that make up Q2 and Q3 2023 comes to 1.321M positions. This does show a labor market that did start to deteriorate in 2023. Your young people kept telling you this. The government and the financial media said otherwise.

Of course, the BLS will have to issue a huge revision to its 2023 job creation numbers later this year."

Chuck again... Well that's all fine and good regarding the revision, but, as I have pointed out for years now, the revisions get completely overlooked by the markets, and only the initial printing of the report is traded on... UGH! But I found this article good because it points out the ridiculousness of the BLS adjustments to job creation!  I have questioned the gains in jobs for years, but since 2020, they've gotten ridiculous... I can't think of a place of business in the last few years, that didn't have a shortage of personnel...

Market Prices 5/9/2024: American Style: A$.6577, kiwi .6003, C$ .7286, euro 1.0737, sterling 1.2497, Swiss $1.0995, European Style: rand 18.5142, krone 10.9243, SEK 10.9191, forint 361.43, zloty 3.9998, koruna 23.3532, RUB 92.75, yen 155.89, sing 1.3563, HKD 7.8156, INR 83.51, China 7.2262, peso 16.94, BRL 5.0907, BBDX 1,257.73, Dollar Index 105.64, Oil $79.64, 10-year 4.50%, Silver $27.66, Platinum $981.00, Palladium $954.00, Copper $4.53, and Gold... $2,312.00.

That's it for today... Well, my time down here is coming to an end, for this time... I'll be back (in my best Terminator voice!) My bleeding gum has been visiting me during the night this week, after not bothering me at all last week. I hold my breath while our to eat, getting on a plane, etc. that I don't have a bad bleeding episode... I was trading emails with an old classmate who we reconnected at our 50th Reunion, and she wanted to know about my cancer... I told her I had been to hell and back with this disease, and wouldn't wish it on any one! And this gum bleeding is ranking up there with going through hell!  But hey! I'm here, and alive, and functioning normally most days, I don't have a complaining peg to hang my hat on!  The Babys take us to the finish line today with their song: Every Time I Think Of You...  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday today, and I can't stress enough how much I hope you will Be Good To Yourself!