- The US gained 261K jobs in October, above early estimates.
- Ongoing expansion of the labor market means a lower chance of slower inflation.
- The Fed is set to continue raising interest rates toward a higher peak.
Very premature to even think about pausing – this is a short version of the hawkish message by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's message on Wednesday. The jobs report vindicates his words. It gives the dollar fresh wings and further hits US stocks. The good news for the economy is bad news for equities.
Nonfarm Payrolls showed an increase of 261,000, on top of 315,000 in September, an upward revision. Another positive is an increase in wages, 0.4% MoM, above 0.3% expected, while yearly wages met estimates with 4.7%.
The only disappointment came from the rise of the unemployment rate to 3.7%. However, in absolute terms, it is still extremely low – reflecting a tight labor market. The jobless rate is calculated using a different survey, adding to a bit of confusion.
Nevertheless, the Fed wants to see pain, and it is hard to find much hurting in this NFP. While monetary policy works with a lag, America's job gains are still above 200,000 – pre-pandemic levels. That means ongoing inflationary pressures and a higher peak rate, as Powell stressed on Wednesday.
The market reaction has been mixed due to optimism about China's reopening and some fatigue from the previous trends. Nevertheless, the dollar looks strong and stocks have limited Chinese fuel to run on.
What's next? I am circling Thursday, November 10, as a critical date on the calendar. That is when the US releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for October, and the focus on price rises makes this report more significant than the jobs report. The economic calendar is pointing to a high level of 0.5% MoM in Core CPI. Without a drop, the dollar is set to extend its gains.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Follow us on Telegram
Stay updated of all the news
EUR/USD stays below 1.0900 as Q1 comes to an end
EUR/USD has lost its traction and declined below 1.0900 in the American session on Friday. Quarter-end flows seem to be allowing the US Dollar find some demand but the risk-positive market environment seems to be limiting the pair's downside ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD trades below 1.2400, looks to post weekly gains
GBP/USD has edged lower after having tested 1.2400 earlier in the day but remains on track to end the third straight week in positive territory. The upbeat mood remains intact after soft PCE inflation data from the US, making it difficult for the US Dollar to continue to gather strength.
Gold tries to stabilize near $1,980 following earlier spike
Gold price has returned to the $1,980 area following a spike above $1,987 with the initial reaction to lower-than-expected PCE inflation figures from the US. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red near 3.5%, providing support to XAU/USD.
Will Dogecoin price pull an XRP and rally 60% next week?
Dogecoin price has been in a tight range bound movement since November 22. The recent recovery above the range low looks promising and hints at an explosive move for next week.
Week ahead – Nonfarm payrolls to set the tone for US dollar
With the banking turmoil receding, market participants will turn their attention back to economic releases. The spotlight will fall on the US employment report.