RBA left rate unchanged, fading EUR appetite

Market Brief

Yesterday, the single currency erased early session gains on disappointing PMI data from the Eurozone and especially Germany. Final reading of the Markit/BME composite PMI for September printed slightly below the 54.3 figure expected by the market as it came in at 54.1. While in the Eurozone, the final composite PMI for September printed at 53.6 versus 53.9 expected and previous reading. Only the French PMI managed to grow in September, the gauge increased to 51.9 from 51.4. As a result, EUR/USD returned quickly below the 1.12 threshold on fading euro appetite. On the medium-term, the pair continues to trade range-bound between 1.11 and 1.1320 and is currently sitting on its 200dma at around 1.1160.

In the UK, data continues to disappoint with the Markit/CIPS composite PMI printing at 53.3, below market expectations of 54.3 and upwardly revised figure of 55.2 in August. We expect the pound sterling to remain under selling pressure as the economy is going through a soft patch. After breaking the resistance implied the low from September 4th at 1.5165, the pair is now heading toward the following one standing at 1.5089 (low from May 5th).

As was widely expected the RBA held rates steady at 2.00%. The tone of the basically unchanged statement was slightly less dovish then the market had expected. Despite expectations, there was no downgrade in the global growth assessment or additional discussion on uncertainly in China. The RBA maintained the general view that "the global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some further softening in conditions in China and East Asia of late, but stronger US growth". In regards to FX, the RBA maintained that the AUD, “is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” On the data front, Australia’s August trade deficit widened to AU$3095mn worse than market consensus of AU$2400mn and revised deficit of AU$2792mn in July. The soft data highlights that regional growth is losing momentum which will potentially have a deeper impact on Australia than the RBA recognizes. AUD rallied on the less pessimistic RBA results, improvement risk sentiment and TPP deal. AUD/USD jumped to 0.7134 from 0.7085 as bullish sentiment should push current rebound to challenge 55dma at 0.7186.

In the stock market, most Asian regional markets emulate Wall Street and European markets. In Japan, the Nikkei rose 1% to 18,186 while the Topix index climbed 0.81%. Mainland Chinese markets are still closed due to holiday while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is the only loser, dropping -0.21%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX edge up 0.33% while in New Zealand the S&P/NZX climbed 0.67%. In Europe, the equities are taking a breather after the quick rally of the previous days. Futures are mixed this morning: the DAX edges up 0.10%, the Footsie 0.18% and the SMI 0.11%. The French CAC 40 fell -0.10%. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13%.

Today traders will be watching Halifax house price from the UK; Swiss CPI; Mario Draghi’s speech in Frankfurt and retail PMI from the Eurozone; Fed’s Williams’ speech in San Francisco and trade balance from the US.

Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.1561
R 1: 1.1330
CURRENT: 1.1198
S 1: 1.1017
S 2: 1.0809

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5659
R 1: 1.5383
CURRENT: 1.5149
S 1: 1.5089
S 2: 1.4960

USDJPY
R 2: 125.86
R 1: 121.75
CURRENT: 120.25
S 1: 118.61
S 2: 116.18

USDCHF
R 2: 1.0240
R 1: 0.9903
CURRENT: 0.9740
S 1: 0.9513
S 2: 0.9259

• S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot