UK markets
Alex Salmond's moment in the sun has finally come. The Scottish are voting on the future of their country as we speak, but seeing as stocks with large exposure to Scotland are rallying it would suggest the support for the ‘Yes’ campaign is fading. Our binary bet on the outcome of the Scottish referendum is now showing an 18% chance of a ‘Yes’ vote. Traders were given a shock by the YouGov poll that put the ‘Yes’ campaign ahead nearly two weeks ago, but the sentiment has shifted to the ‘No’ side and traders have used the Salmond shake up as an opportunity to pick up cheap banking stocks.US markets
In the US, the Dow Jones is up 80 points at 17,237. US equities have extended their gains as traders prepare themselves for an interest rate rise in early 2015. The QE scheme is in its final stretch, and now traders are coming around to the idea that rates will not remain at rock bottom forever. Our clients are indicating a market capitalisation of $224 billion, the highest level since March, for Alibaba's IPO; a 37% premium over the company’s guidance ahead of its potentially record-setting float tomorrow.Commodities
Gold hit an eight-month low after the Fed hinted at a sooner -than-expected interest rate rise. Copper has also been hit bit by the strong US dollar as the cash injection by the PBoC did little to stem the fear that the world’s second largest economy is slowing down.FX
The euro is slowly crawling back the ground lost to the US dollar in the wake of FOMC meeting. It has made gains following the beginning of the TLTRO program, combined with some euphoria (however misplaced) over the ECB's voting rotation scheme. Sterling is having a stellar session on the day as the Scottish go to the polls for the referendum on independence, and the jump in the pound suggests that traders are pricing in a ‘No’ vote.
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EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 after German inflation data
EUR/USD trades modestly higher on the day above 1.0700. The data from Germany showed that the annual HICP inflation edged higher to 2.4% in April. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.3% and helped the Euro hold its ground.
USD/JPY recovers above 156.00 following suspected intervention
USD/JPY recovers ground and trades above 156.00 after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. Later this week, Federal Reserve's policy decisions and US employment data could trigger the next big action.
Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week
Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.
Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week Premium
Two main macroeconomic events this week could attempt to sway the crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC), which showed strength last week, has slipped into a short-term consolidation.
Week ahead: FOMC and jobs data in sight
May kicks off with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and will be one to watch, scheduled to make the airwaves on Wednesday. It’s pretty much a sealed deal for a no-change decision at this week’s meeting.