Macro Events & News

Andria Pichidi HFM

FX News Today

Asian markets overnight fought to sustain a rebound amid hopes that the Fed may stop the rate hike cycle after the widely expected December move.
USDJPY recouped to upper 112.0s. Yen performance reflects a broad unwinding of safe-haven positioning following a late-session rebound on Wall Street and steadying in stock markets across Asia after yesterday’s outsized losses.
Nikkei gained 0.82%, even though Hang Seng and CSI 300 remain under pressure.
Fed Chairman Powell stressed the strength of the labour market late.
The Huawei arrest continues to hang over US-Sino relations, however, the sell off in stock markets on Thursday started to ease during the US session.
President Trump cited a Beijing statement on Twitter, that “‘We are full of confidence that an agreement can be reached within the next 90 days.’ I agree,” which helped to allay investor concerns of an entrenching trade war.
OPEC+ producers continue to bicker over production cuts. Though the amount is yet to be determined, and will be discussed on Friday with the Russian energy minister expected to be in attendance.
WTI crude are trading around to $51.00 level following the EIA inventory data which showed a 7.3 mln bbl fall in crude stocks, against the 2.0 mln bbl decrease expected.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

European GDP – Expectations – The Q3 GDP growth, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% q/q, lower than initially expected and partly reflecting the -0.2% q/q contraction in Germany that quarter.

Nonfarm Payrolls – Expectations – NFP are projected rising 200k after a solid 250k increase in October. Payrolls are averaging 213k so far this year, up from 182k in 2017 and 195k in 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at the 49-year low of 3.7%. Attention will be on average hourly earnings, which should rise 0.2% on the month.

Canadian Employment data – Expectations – November employment is expected to show a 15.0k gain after the 11.2k rise in October. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.8%

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – The Michigan sentiment index likely edged up to 97.8 in December after dipping to 97.5 in November. Overall, the index remains at a high level, though now further below the 14-year high of 101.4 in March.

Support and Resistance

Author

Andria Pichidi

HFM

Having completed her five-year-long studies in the UK, Andria Pichidi has been awarded a BSc in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bath and a MSc degree in Mathematics, while she holds a postgraduate diploma (PGdip) in

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.