Is the bar too low? Economists expect US core CPI MoM to have risen by 0.2%, below recent levels. Another hot inflation report may hurt Gold and Stocks. Live coverage.
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The last mile in inflation is the hardest
US inflation is far below the peaks seen in 2022, but core prices – excluding volatile energy and food – remain uncomfortably above 3%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) aim for 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December provides hard data about price rises. Core CPI MoM is projected to have risen by 0.2% according to the economic calendar, but it rose by 0.3% in the past four months. That implies an annualized rate of 3.6%, too high.
Another stronger-than-expected read would boost the US Dollar on expectations of an even higher path of interest rates. A softer one would support Gold and Stocks, which needs lower borrowing costs.
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