AUDCAD: Stevens vs. Poloz

There has been very little action in the currency world at the start of the new week as most of the major currency pairs are lacking in the headline grabbing department. US equities, on the other hand, are racing out to record levels this morning potentially on expectations of solid earnings from Apple being released after the market closes this afternoon. Just because currencies aren’t providing any major talking points doesn’t mean there isn’t anything going on within them though. Our old friend Greece is making some headlines due to the reeling in of Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis.

The much ballyhooed Varoufakis was anointed as a next level negotiator supremely skilled in the art of Game Theory when he ascended to his post, but after a few months of little progress with Greece’s debtors, he was essentially ousted as Greece’s dealmaker. That role now falls to Deputy Foreign Minister Euclid Tsakalotos. The former economics professor has been a politician since mid-2012, and now he is tasked with trying to negotiate a favorable deal for his home country after the supposed master negotiator couldn’t get the job done. Something tells me this won’t end well for Greece.

Moving away from everyone’s favorite punching bag, there are other intriguing opportunities out there in the trading world. One such situation could be arising for a couple of commodity currencies whose central bank heads will be making some speeches over the next 24 hours. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens will be speaking to some bankers in Sydney this evening and Bank of Canada Governor Steven Poloz will be having a chat with Canada’s House of Commons tomorrow morning. If we were to look at the recent history of each figurehead, you could easily see that Stevens is rather bearish on his currency while Poloz is pretty sanguine in his thoughts on his currency. The polar opposite takes on their current situations could potentially make their currencies move in harmony in one particular direction.

Of course, if Stevens remains bearish, the AUD may go lower, and if Poloz continues to be optimistic, the CAD could go higher. That divergence in thought makes for a “perfect storm” type of effect in the AUD/CAD which may see a break below support near 0.9420. Helping this move along is a declining trend line that has held this pair in check for the last couple weeks as well as more positive moves for oil which is approaching $60 in WTI. Since central bankers tend to not change their mind very quickly, the fundamental leans of these gentlemen could help break the ranging technical trap in which the AUD/CAD has been mired.