Market Review
After Janet Yellen and her board at the FOMC were surprisingly dovish Wednesday night the market had a quiet session yesterday. We expected the EURUSD to start a retracement and have to a certain extent been correct, though the currency pair has been moving quietly and has yet to get back to the levels seen before the meeting took place. A strong sterling is helping the upside, as correlation traders have tried to benefit from the cable rally on more currency pairs than the mentioned one. Our T-Notes prediction came true as it has been selling off since just after mid-day yesterday and has been trading around the bid area from Wednesday evening. S&P has kept its gains as Yellen’s stamp of approval was put on current levels, reviving traders energy for the 2,000 handle. No entries were taken on and considering the slow market we were content with the result.Today's Fundamental View
Traders; brace yourselves. We are about to embark upon a very slow session. With the market ranging since yesterday and today’s data calendar completely empty the stage is set for the market to go nowhere. After decent earnings we saw Blackberry rally by some 12% yesterday, mostly due to not posting losses, which seemingly have become the norm for the struggling Canadian technology company. A few months back we issued a buy recommendation on this company (report available upon request) on the back of its huge cash pile meaning the company is worth only about $1.7 billion, which is low considering the assets and technology on its hands, even under an alternative scenario where the company no longer produces handsets. Equities as a whole will continue to drift higher today, and we assume treasuries to trade lower than the current levels at the end of the session. For crude oil, ISIS have taken control over an old military grade chemical weapons facility. As western leaders state this is not really an issue, reports are showing that there are massive chemical storages on the base that apparently there is a “low chance they can use”. To us it sounds a bit inane, believing the richest terrorist organisation in the world will not have the manpower, brains or capital to fully utilize this. If the original proposition of WMD’s not to be in the hands of terrorists was the reason to get in to Iraq, this means we can stamp mission fail on the file, 11 years after entering the country. At this point it would be better with Saddam in power, at least then there would be a leader who was too risk averse not to use it against the west. We believe there will be a step up in military activity and assume the base to be back on allied hands within a week, and continue with our long perspective on oil. The USD should continue to drift lower.Alternative View
Hawkish monetary comment speakers from the Eurozone may adversely affect our strategies.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0700 even as USD struggles ahead of data
EUR/USD has erased gains to trade flat near 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday. The pair comes under pressure even as the US Dollar struggles, in the aftermath of the Fed policy announcements and ahead of more US employment data.
GBP/USD turns south toward 1.2500, US data eyed
GBP/USD is consolidating the rebound above 1.2500 in European trading on Thursday. The pair struggles, despite the US Dollar weakness on dovish Fed signals. A mixed market mood caps the GBP/USD upside ahead of mid-tier US data.
Gold price pulls back as market sentiment improves
The Gold price is trading in the $2,310s on Thursday after retracing about three-tenths of a percent on reduced safe-haven demand. Market sentiment is overall positive as Asian stocks on balance closed higher and Oil prices hover at seven-week lows.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Altcoins to pump once BTC bottoms out, slow grind up for now
Bitcoin reclaiming above $59,200 would hint that BTC has already bottomed out, setting the tone for a run north. Ethereum holding above $2,900 keeps a bullish reversal pattern viable despite falling momentum. Ripple coils up for a move north as XRP bulls defend $0.5000.
Happy Apple day
Apple is due to report Q1 results today after the bell. Expectations are soft given that Apple’s Chinese business got a major hit in Q1 as competitors increased their market share against the giant Apple.