Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD awaits acceptance above $1,950, as uptrend resumes

Gold price is retreating from a new four-week high of $1,943 but clings to the latest gains amid a broadly subdued US Dollar and a pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. Gold traders await a bunch of Fed speakers for the next push higher, gearing up for Thursday’s speech by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.  

Gold jumps on upbeat China’s data, what next?

The US Dollar remains on the back foot early Wednesday, tracking the retreat in the US Treasury bond yields from over one-week highs, as investors seem to fade the market optimism briefly driven by the upbeat Chinese economic data releases.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday that China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of this year, as against the 6.3% growth in the second quarter, beating estimates of 4.4%. China’s September Retail Sales YoY, jumped 5.5% vs. +4.9% expected and +4.6% prior reading while the country’s Industrial Production came in at 4.5% YoY vs. 4.3% forecasts and August’s 4.5%.

However, lingering concerns over a potential default by Country Garden Holdings, China's largest private property developer, on its $11 billion in offshore debt keep markets on the edge. Further, no signs of de-escalation on the Hamas-Israel military conflict remain the main underlying risk-off factor behind the tepid sentiment, enabling Gold price back toward multi-week highs.

United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire after a deadly Israeli strike at a Gaza hospital, which killed at least 500 people, including women and children. A UN-run school housing refugees was also struck.

A rush to safety keeps Gold price underpinned. Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggles to capitalize on increased safe-haven demand, in the wake of the recent dovish commentary by Fed officials, cementing a Fed rate hike pause in November.

Upbeat US Retail Sales report temporarily offered some support to the US Dollar on Tuesday. US Retail Sales, unadjusted for inflation, rose 0.7% after upwardly revised increases in the prior two months, according to the Commerce Department.  Further, news that the US restricted the sale of Nvidia Made-For-China in a new set of rules also helped the US Dollar find demand. However, the Greenback gave back gains after Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said"I believe we have a restrictive policy stance."

Against this backdrop, Gold price yo-yoed between gains and losses, eventually settled Tuesday in the green amidst a risk-averse market environment.

Looking ahead, a flurry of Fed officials will dominate American trading ahead of the Fed’s Beige Book, offering fresh hints on the central bank’s policy path. Fedspeak combined with the mid-tier US economic data and corporate earnings results will provide a fresh trading impetus to Gold traders. Middle East tensions will continue to grab attention.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The Gold price hit a fresh four-week high of $1,943 early Wednesday before entering a phase of upside consolidation. Despite a minor pullback, Gold price holds firmer above the critical 20-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,930, having stormed through it earlier.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is pointing higher above the midline, suggesting that there is more room to the upside.

The next resistance level is seen at the September 20 high of $1,947, above which the September 1 high of $1,953 will be put to test.

A sustained move above the latter could fuel a fresh uptrend toward the $1,970-$1,980 supply zone.

If Gold price fails to find a strong foothold above the 200 DMA at $1,930, a retracement toward the 100 DMA support at $1,923 will be on the card.

Further south, the previous day’s low of $1,912 will be on Gold sellers’ radars.