Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD traders appear non-committal ahead of US jobs data

Gold price keeps its range near $2,640, as US employment data will trickle in on Tuesday.
The US Dollar holds recovery following Trump’s tariffs plan-led steep sell-off.
Technically, Gold price awaits a range breakout as the daily RSI trades neutral.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold price is battling the short-term critical barrier at around $2,635 early Tuesday, consolidating the two-day corrective decline from three-week highs of $2,665. Gold traders refrain from placing fresh directional bets ahead of the top-tier US ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data.

Gold price eyes US data for fresh trading impetus

Despite Monday’s two-way price movement, Gold price remains confined in a familiar range as traders weigh the latest reports surrounding incoming US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and the US economic data releases for a clear direction heading into Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls data release.

Gold price reversed the Asian bounce and fell as low as $2,615 in the European session on Monday on fading China’s stimulus optimism and sagging physical Gold demand from India. The rising domestic Gold prices due to the depreciation of the Indian Rupee (INR) to record low dampened demand for the bright metal from the world’s no. 2 Gold consumer.

Further, Goldman Sachs pushed back its forecast of Gold reaching $3,000 per ounce, initially expected by the end of 2025. This also exerted downward pressure on Gold price.

However, Gold price found fresh buyers in American trading after the US Dollar (USD) fell steeply across the board following a report from the Washington Post (WaPo) that Trump's aides were exploring plans that would apply tariffs only on sectors seen as critical to US national or economic security.

Trump quickly denied the report in a post on his Truth Social platform, which allowed the Greenback to recover some ground, prompting Gold price to settle in the red.

Later this Tuesday, speculations around Trump’s tariff plans, the US jobs data and the broader market sentiment will play a pivotal role in the Gold price action. Meanwhile, a speech by Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin on the economic forecast will be closely scrutnized for gauging the Fed next policy move.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades listlessly at the 50 level, leaving Gold price gyrating in a narrow range.

In doing so, Gold price clings to the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,636 after failing to sustain above it on a daily closing basis on Monday.

The immediate support is now seen at the 100-day SMA at $2,627, below which the door will open for a retest of the previous week’s low of $2,596.

Ahead of that, the previous day’s low of $2,615 will offer some support to Gold buyers.

If Gold buyers regain control above the 50-day SMA barrier at $2,648, the next relevant topside barrier is seen at the three-week high of $2,665.

Further up, the $2,700 level will challenge bearish committments.

Economic Indicator

JOLTS Job Openings

JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

AUD/USD challenges four-week highs beyond 0.7000

AUD/USD continues its march north, this time leaving behind the key 0.7000 hurdle and trading at shouting distance from multi-week tops. The persistent recovery in spot comes amid further losses in the Greenback amid extra improvement in the risk complex.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold advances modestly; targets $4,150

Gold prices manage to reverse three consecutive daily declines, trading just below the $4,150 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s recovery comes amid a slight drop in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields across the board and a widespread cautious tone from the US-Iran front.

XRP and XLM regain momentum as derivatives activity picks up

Ripple and Stellar are regaining momentum on Wednesday, mirroring gains across major digital assets. XRP has climbed above $1.36, while XLM has reached $0.1854, reinforcing support levels recently tested. This gradual price increase comes amid sticky inflation in the United States and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary decision next week.

What the midterm elections mean for Treasury yields, the Dollar and Gold

Democrats are priced to take the House, so November 3 comes down to the Senate and how much Washington can borrow without the other party. Treasury yields will show the answer first, then the Dollar and Gold. On November 3, Americans vote for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. For bond prices, the result comes down to one thing: how much the government will borrow over the next two years.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.