Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD nears $2,600 as investors gear up for the Fed

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $2,758.02

Risk aversion dominated the first half of Tuesday, although sentiment improved.
The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
XAU/USD trades with a positive tone in the near term, with room to extend gains.

Gold trades marginally higher on Tuesday, still down for the week. XAU/USD recovered from an intraday low of $2,734.68 and approaches the $2,600 mark in the mid-American session. Financial markets were risk-averse throughout the first half of Tuesday amid fresh tariff-related concerns following comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump. Trump said he does not want gradual tariffs, as proposed by his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday. Bessent suggested on Monday that the country could impose gradual levies of 2.5%, which could be increased periodically.

The dismal mood somehow eased ahead of Wall Street’s opening, with the three major indexes now trading in positive territory. Gains however, are modest as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The Fed is undergoing a two-day meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday. Officials will announce their decision afterwards, with officials widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold. Whereas the accompanying statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech are dovish or hawkish and will decide the market’s direction.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD suggests the corrective decline is over. Gold may extend its recovery, as it trades above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining upward traction above also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, slowly gain upward traction within positive levels and after correcting overbought conditions.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the picture is neutral-to-bullish. Technical indicators aim north, although the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 line. At the same time, XAU/USD is barely surpassing a flat 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes well below the current level.

Support levels: 2,747.20 2,734.60 2,716.50

Resistance levels: 2,764.85 2,777.30 2,789.95

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD extends the range play above 0.7200 as traders await US inflation data

AUD/USD is seen extending its consolidative price move above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed cues. Rising RBA rate-hike bets keep the Aussie close to its highest level since May 14. However, hawkish Fed expectations and escalating US-Iran tensions offer some support to the US Dollar, capping the currency pair as traders await US inflation figures.

USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold remains in the red, still below $4,400

Gold maintains an erratic trade so far this week, now slipping back below the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce following the stronger US Dollar and a strong rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, particularly following US Producer Prices and ahead of Friday’s more relevant US CPI data.

XRP slides amid a fragile crypto market structure

Ripple (XRP) falls for the second straight day, trading at $1.37 on Thursday. The broader cryptocurrency market remains fragile as investors weigh the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which triggered persistent increases in Crude Oil prices while restricting shipping through the Straight of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Jobs opened the door for the Fed — inflation decides whether it walks through

The latest US jobs report did not end the debate over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. It may have done something more subtle: it gave policymakers permission to keep their options open. After months of softer labour market signals, August delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.