Australian inflation expectations jump, Aussie gains ground

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6172 in the European session, up 0.39% on the day.

Australian Dollar on a wild ride

The Australian dollar continues to take market participants on a wild roller-coaster ride. AUD/USD soared 3.2% on Wednesday, recovering from a three-day slide in which the Aussie plunged 6%. The sharp swings are a direct result of the massive moves in the global equity markets.

The week started with sharp losses in equities in response to the latest round of US tariffs. This triggered flows away from risk currencies like the Australian dollar to safer assets, such as the Japanese yen. The equity markets completely reversed directions and soared on Wednesday after Trump dropped tariffs to a universal 10% on all countries except China, and the Australian dollar surged higher.

Australian inflation expectations jumps to 4.2%

Australian consumer inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% in April, up from 3.6% in March and above the forecast of 3.6%.
The sharp gain reflects the concern that the latest escalation in trade tensions could boost Australia's inflation rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia has only lowered rates once after holding rates for over a year but may have to accelerate its easing due to the tariff turmoil.

China's CPI decline for second consecutive month

China's consumer prices declined for a second successive month as domestic consumption has weakened. CPI dropped by 0.1% y/y in March after a sharp 0.7% decline in February, below the market estimate of 0.1%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.4%, down from -0.2% in February and below the market estimate of -0.2%.

Producer Price inflation also eased as China could face more unsold exports due to the trade war with the US. A decrease in domestic demand in China could translate into less demand for Australian exports.

AUD/USD Technical

AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 0.6164 and tested 0.6193 earlier.
0.6125 and 0.6094 are providing support.

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

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