Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD finds acceptance above $2,670, eyes a fresh leg up on US CPI data


  • Gold price sits at two-week highs near $2,700 early Wednesday, awaiting US CPI data.       
  • Chinese central bank buying and Middle East tensions bolster the Gold price upswing.
  • Gold price finds acceptance above 50-day SMA amid a bullish RSI on the daily chart.

Gold's price is on a solid recovery, flirting with two-week highs just above $2,700 early Wednesday. However, the further upside in gold price hinges on the release of the US  Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will likely set the pace for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) early next year.

Gold price stays firm as US CPI report looms

Heading into the US CPI showdown, markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the odds for another quarter percentage point rate reduction in January stand at 22%.

Amidst looming tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump and loosening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be critical to determining the Fed’s easing trajectory in the coming months. This will impact the value of the US Dollar (USD) and the non-yielding Gold price.

US CPI is seen rising 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) in November after reporting a 2.6% growth in October. The core annual inflation will likely remain at 3.3% in the same period. On a monthly basis, US CPI and core CPI are expected to have increased by 0.3% last month.

Gold  price has witnessed an impressive recovery from eight-day lows so far this week, sitting at the highest level since November 25. This is courtesy of the ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and the resumption of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) buying gold reserves.

 The Chinese central bank on Saturday said it bought 160,000 fine troy ounces in November, ending a six-month pause in purchases. Meanwhile, the sudden collapse of the Syrian government over the weekend rattled markets, with investors scurrying for safety in the traditional store of value Gold price.

According to the latest developments, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)  carried out attacks on Syria's naval fleet as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime, per BBC News.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the Gold price broke the consolidative phase to the upside after recapturing the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,670 on a daily closing basis on Tuesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, suggesting that more gains remain in the offing.  

A softer-than-expected US CPI inflation data could reinforce Fed rate cut expectations in the coming months, driving Gold price toward the November 25  high of $2,721.

The next bullish target is $2,750, the confluence of the psychological barrier and the November 5 high.

Fresh buying opportunities will likely emerge on a sustained move above the latter, calling for a test of the record high of $2,790.

In case the inflation data surprises to the upside, Gold price could face fresh headwinds, with sellers likely to test the 50-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,670.

The next relevant downside cap is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,638, below which the previous week’s low of $2,613 will be challenged.

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD drifts lower toward 0.6300; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus

AUD/USD drifts lower toward 0.6300; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus

AUD/USD heads toward 0.6300 early Friday, resuming the pullback from near 0.6400. The pair remains on a slippery slope despite a weaker US Dollar. US-China trade tensions and increased odds of Trump's tariffs-led global recession undermine the risk-sensitive Aussie. All eyes on US NFP and Powell. 

AUD/USD News
USD/JPY holds recovery near 146.00; upside seems limited ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY holds recovery near 146.00; upside seems limited ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY trades close to 146.00, holding its recovery in the Asian session on Friday. Investors dial down bets of aggressive BoJ rate hikes, amid worries that Trump's new tariffs could negatively impact Japan's economy, helps the pair sustain its latest upswing. But buyers remain wary ahead of US NFP and Powell. 

USD/JPY News
Gold turns south toward $3,100, all eyes on US NFP and Powell

Gold turns south toward $3,100, all eyes on US NFP and Powell

Gold price returns to the red, eyeing $3,100 again in the Asian session on Friday after facing some profit-taking in the previous session. Escalating concerns over a global trade war and a US recession boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. The focus now stays on the US NFP data and Powell's speech. 

Gold News
What to expect from Bitcoin and XRP following Trump tariffs: Experts weigh in

What to expect from Bitcoin and XRP following Trump tariffs: Experts weigh in

Bitcoin stretched its decline on Thursday, briefly dropping below $83,000 as President Trump's newly announced reciprocal tariffs extended the crypto market downturn by over 4%. The sustained decline and high volatility highlight Bitcoin's increasing risk to macroeconomic uncertainties. 

Read more
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way

United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs. 

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025