Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends range play, awaiting key US economic data

Gold price is building on the previous day’s rebound, eyeing a sustained move above $2,750 early Tuesday. Despite the renewed uptick, Gold price remain within a familiar range as the US Dollar (USD) rally takes a breather ahead of top-tier US economic data releases due later on Tuesday.

Can Gold price sustain the upswing ahead of US data?

USD buyers resort to profit-taking after the recent upsurge to three-month highs while repositioning in the run-up to the high-impact US statistics due this week. Later this Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings survey and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence data will be eyed to gauge the US economic resilience, which could provide fresh hints on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate cut outlook.

The Greenback traders also remain wary ahead of Thursday's release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Price Index, followed by the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showdown. Additionally, traders’ nervousness before the publication of the third-quarter earnings reports of the US' biggest companies by market capitalization, including Google’s parent company Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon Inc., etc., also keeps the USD on the back foot.

Meanwhile, increased enthusiasm that former US President Donald Trump could win the November 5 election, combined with hopes of more Chinese stimulus, underpin global equities, diminishing the attractiveness of the go-to safe-haven, the US Dollar.

Against a broad US Dollar pullback, Gold price is trying its luck to make another headway toward the record high of $2,759, despite reports that physical Gold demand from China has taken a hit.

According to a state-backed gold association, cited by Reuters on Monday, “China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2024 slid 11.18% from the same period a year ago to 741.732 metric tons as high prices dented buying interest for jewelry products.”

Further, the festive season in India – the world’s no.2 yellow metal market – also lends support to the bright metal.

However, it remains to be seen whether Gold price can sustain its uptick, as the US Dollar could jump back on the bids on the revival of the USD/JPY bullish momentum. At the press time, the Japanese Yen has recovered some ground on a dip in Japan’s Unemployment Rate, suggesting tight labor market conditions that are conducive for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to mull further rate hikes. This has triggered a decent USD/JPY pullback below 153.00.

Gold price will also take cues from the upcoming US data and sentiment on Wall Street, as the US earnings calendar heats up.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price has entered a phase of consolidation, with the upside capped by the record high of $2,759 set on October 23 while buyers continue to find demand at $2,723, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to all-time high of $2,759.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching higher, approaching the overbought region, currently near 69.  The leading indicator indicates more room for Gold price upside in the near term.

Therefore, Gold buyers need a sustained move above the $2,750 psychological barrier to take on the lifetime high at $2,759. Further up, the $2,570 level will challenge the bearish commitments. 

On the downside, the 23.6% Fibo support at $2,723 remains a tough nut to crack for Gold sellers.  

Acceptance below that level on a daily candlestick closing basis could revive the correction, targeting the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent at $2,700.

Further south, the 50% Fibo support at $2,681 will be challenged, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns.