Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD defends $2,550 in the Fed’s aftermath, ahead of US data
- Gold price bounces early Thursday after a volatile post-Fed trading on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar extends recovery with Treasury bond yields, as a jumbo Fed rate cut was priced in.
- The daily bullish RSI continues to keep buyers alive, as Gold price looks to retest $2,600.
Gold price is defending $2,550 early Thursday, catching a breath after intense volatility witnessed in the aftermath of the all-important US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Gold price fails to capitalize on jumbo Fed rate cut
Traders turn their focus to the upcoming US Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data to gauge the health of the overall economy, which could shed fresh light on the future path of rates by the Fed, having a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and Gold price.
The Fed announced a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate to the range of 4.75%-5.0%. The Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called Dot Plot chart, suggested a total of 100 bps of rate cuts for this year and the next.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his press conference, also maintained a dovish tone, explaining that “this recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance. We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”
In an immediate reaction to the Fed policy announcements, the US Dollar (USD) tumbled to the lowest level in over a year against its major rivals amid a sharp sell-off in the US Treasury bond yields, lifting the non-interest-bearing Gold price to a fresh record high of $2,600. However, Gold price faced rejection at that level and corrected sharply to settle in the red near $2,560.
The pullback in the Gold price was fuelled by an impressive turnaround staged by the US Dollar, as an outsized rate reduction was well priced in by the markets. Further, hopes that a large Fed rate cut could lead to a potential ‘soft-landing’ for the US economy also aided the Greenback’s recovery across the board.
The USD recovery stretched into the Asian session on Thursday, keeping Gold price struggling, as traders look to a fresh batch of US economic data for fresh trading impetus. Gold price, however, continues to find support at lower levels, courtesy of the renewed Middle East geopolitical tensions.
According to the latest reports, at least 20 people were killed and over 450 injured in Lebanon after hand-held radios or walkie-talkies used by the militant group Hezbollah exploded in multiple parts of the country. These explosions occurred a day after a suspected Israeli attack targeting pagers used by the group for communication between its members.
A re-escalation of the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to bode well for the traditional safe-haven Gold price, also as hopes of further rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed’s November and December meeting.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
As observed on the daily chart, Gold price remains bullish, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns north while well above the 50 level, currently near 63.00.
The renewed upside in Gold price could challenge the previous record high at $2,590 again before taking on the $2,600 threshold.
Acceptance above that level will call for a test of the $2,650 psychological barrier.
On the flip side, if the corrective decline resumes, Gold price could threaten the previous day’s low of $2,547, below which the August 20 high of $2,532 will be tested.
Further down, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,524 could be a tough nut to crack for Gold sellers.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
