Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers bide time before the next push higher

Gold price battles $2,500 early Tuesday, as buyers gather pace amid souring risk sentiment.
The US Dollar struggles with US Treasury bond yields on dovish Fed expectations.
The focus remains on Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.
Gold price could see dip-buying trading, as the daily RSI stays bullish, with a symmetrical triangle in play.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold price is keeping its range play intact at around $2,500 early Tuesday, within striking distance of the all-time highs at $2,510. Traders take a breather and refrain from placing fresh bets on the Gold price ahead of the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) July meeting and Chairman Jereme Powell’s speech later this week.

Gold price remains poised for a fresh record high above $2,500

Gold price has entered a phase of upside consolidation, following a rally to a new lifetime high and a 3% gain booked last week. Buyers are looking forward to a fresh and significant catalyst to regain upside traction, even though the US Dollar (USD) continues to remain on a downward spiral alongside the US Treasury bond yields.

The Greenback faced a double whammy on Monday, with heightening expectations surrounding a September Fed interest-rate cut weighing on the US Treasury bond yields on one side. On the other hand, dovish Fed expectations lifted the sentiment on Wall Street, eroding the safe-haven appeal of the USD.

However, Gold price failed to capitalize on reduced US Dollar demand, as fears over a potential Middle-East geopolitical escalation eased after news reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted a "bridging proposal" presented by Washington to tackle disagreements blocking a ceasefire deal in Gaza, per Reuters.

Heading into yet another day of data-sparse US economic calendar on Tuesday, Gold price treads water, with markets digesting the no-rate change action by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Traders turn anxious, awaiting the Fed's July meeting Minutes and Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for clues on the interest-rate outlook.

Markets are currently fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed next month, with the odds of a 50 bps move off the table. The further upside in Gold price could be also capped because of the pricing out of a bigger rate reduction for September.

Ahead of the key Fed events, Gold price will continue to remain at the mercy of risk trends and speeches from Fed policymakers. Fresh developments surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict could also play a pivotal role in the Gold price action.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Following a symmetrical triangle breakout, risks remain skewed to the upside for Gold price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points south but holds well above the 50 level, suggesting that any pullback in Gold price could be bought into.

On the upside, should the record high of $2,510 be taken out on a sustained basis, the next relevant topside target is seen at the $2,550 level. Acceptance above the latter could challenge the $2,600 round level en route to the triangle target, measured at $2,660.

However, if the Gold price correction extends, the immediate support is seen at the previous day’s low of $2,486, followed by the triangle resistance-turned-support, now at $2,468.

Further south, the $2,450 psychological barrier will challenge the bullish commitments.

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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