Towards the end of last February, the 27th to be exact, we posted an update of the GDXJ-Junior Gold Miners ETF showing how it had just ended a strong 5-wave impulse upswing at $43.01 from December’s low. This was providing confirmation of upside continuity in the future, that this initial five wave impulse was simply the beginning of a much larger, multi-year uptrend – a 1st wave.

But before that can continue, in compliance with Universal Law, action must be followed by reaction.  In the GDXJ’s case, a counter-trend decline must begin to unfold. R.N. Elliott’s guideline is that a correction commonly returns to the area of ‘fourth wave preceding degree’ which is around the $36.08 area – see chart. Whilst corrections can end into this minimum area, they can also extend beyond, or lower. This all depends on the depth of the preceding fourth wave in relation to the fifth and the labelling of the preceding impulse.

GDXJ

In this specific case, the GDXJ was beginning a correction as a 2nd wave. In fact, 2nd waves are notorious for unfolding far deeper than simply levels at fourth wave preceding degree. Anticipating such declines are really dependent on how the initial stage of the correction unfolds. If declining into a five wave pattern as it did to $32.66, then we already know that another deeper part of this correction is taking place, eventually taking the form of a 5-3-5 zig zag.

 

Why Fib-Price-Ratios are the key to forecasting termination levels for Zig Zag Patterns

This is where fib-price-ratios are crucial in measuring the termination level of the zig zag. There are various ways to accomplish this but one of the most common ratios is well-known – where waves ‘a’ and ‘c’ measure to quality, or by a fib. 100% correlative ratio. As you can see from the chart, this was zig zag perfection because this ratio projected a terminal low to $29.29+/- with the actual low coming-in at $29.33!

The $29.33 low as this 2nd wave was also testing the fib. 85.4% retracement of its 1st wave predecessor [100-14.58 = 85.4]. When pattern meets fib-price-ratios and prices respond by trading higher afterwards, it confirms a ‘reversal-signature’ or a trend reversal. And so in terms of probability, this set-up is about as good as it gets – risk-reward is excellent basis negation below 29.33 - the prevailing, dominant uptrend is expected to resume higher now.   

 


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WaveTrack International and its related publications apply R.N.Elliott's "The Wave Principle" to historical market price activity which categorises and interprets the progress of future price patterns according to this methodology. Whilst it may be reasonable to deduce a course of action regarding investments as a result of such application, at no time or on any occasion will specific securities, futures, options or commodities of any kind be recommended for purchase or sale. Publications containing forecasts are therefore intended for information purposes only. Any opinion contained in these reports is only a statement of our views and are based on information we believe to be reliable but no guarantee is given as to its accuracy or completeness. Markets are volatile and therefore subject to rapid an unexpected price changes. Any person relying on information contained in these reports does so at their own risk entirely and no liability is accepted by WaveTrack in respect thereof. © All rights are copyrights to WaveTrack. Reproduction and / or dissemination without WaveTrack's prior consent is strictly forbidden. We encourage reviews, quotation and reference but request that full credit is given.

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