GBP/USD Forecast: Eyeing lockdowns, US data, to break out of range after stabilizing with Boris

Boris Johnson is sitting up in his hospital bed – the government's latest update on the condition of the prime minister has helped lift up the pound. GBP/USD has been moving up toward the upper end of its recent range as stock markets remain relatively calm – but that may change in a busy pre-Easter day. 

Dominic Raab, the UK's Foreign Secretary who is deputizing for Johnson, will lead a decision to extend the lockdown after Britain's death toll from coronavirus topped 7,000. Testing has yet to be ramped up and the curve still needs to be further flattened before the UK may consider easing restrictions. 

More: Coronavirus Exit Strategy: Three critical factors to watch and how they impact currencies

After spending the third night in intensive care, the next update about the PM's situation will also be eyed later in the day, alongside new statistics about COVID-19.

In the US and especially in New York, there are tentative signs of slowing the spread of the disease, but also there, New York reported the deadliest day yet. Before new coronavirus statistics are are due in America, the economic calendar promises action.

Unemployment claims are set to drop to 5.25 million in the week ending on April 3 after leaping to 6.648 million in the previous week. Weekly applications have soared due to the stay-at-home orders. Continuing claims are also of interest.

See: Jobless Claims Preview: Is there an unemployment encore?

Later on, preliminary Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan for April carries expectations for a drop to 75 from 89.1 in March. The data will already reflect the mood under lockdowns and may set a lower standard.

See: Consumer Sentiment Preview: Setting a dismal standard

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will have the last word of a short trading week. Speaking in Washington, the world's most powerful central banker will speak about the economy. The Fed took extraordinary steps to cushion the downfall from the crisis, including slashing rates to 0%, announcing unlimited bond-buying, and launching various lending programs. The meeting minutes from the decision to cut borrowing costs on March 15 showed that the bank intends to use more tools to support the economy. 

The Bank of England has also taken extraordinary steps, including lending money directly to the government – going beyond Quantitative Easing. The British government has an account with the BOE and is set to withdraw funds for immediate expenditure – money printing. The sum has not been disclosed and has yet to impact the pound. 

Overall, considerable action awaits traders in the last full trading day of the week.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Pound/dollar has surpassed the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart and is benefiting from upside momentum – two bullish developments. It remains below the 200 SMA but above the 100 SMA. All in all, the picture is improving for the currency pair. 

Resistance awaits at 1.2420, the daily high, and then by the stubborn resistance line of 1.2490. The next levels to watch were last seen in March – 1.2605 and 1.2710.

Some support awaits at the daily low of 1.2360, followed by 1.2280, a support line from earlier this week. The weekly low of 1.2160 is the next level to watch.