Arnaud Masset
Swissquote Bank Ltd
World equities recovered slowly on Friday morning amid hopes that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping find common ground on and move forward with trade negotiations. By forcing Google to restrict Huawei’s access to Android and by putting them on an export blacklist list, the decision rattled financial markets as fears spread. European equities bore the brunt of the sell-off yesterday as investors anticipated that the US President could use similar methods in the EU-US trade negotiations. The DAX erased 1.75%, the EuroSTOXX 600 slid 1.40% while the S&P 500 gave up only 1.20%. In the FX market, the reaction was similar with investors buying safe-haven currencies such as the Swissy and the Japanese yen. USD/CHF tumbled to 1.0024 while USD/JPY reached 109.46.
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This morning the confidence has returned partially as Trump said that Huawei could be in included as part of a trade deal. Global equites trimmed substantially yesterday losses with the DAX jumping 1% and the EuroSTOXX 600 rising 0.80%. US futures are also better bid with front month contracts climbing 0.60%. In the FX market, the story is much different, as risk aversion remained quite high. Investors are reluctant to load on risky asset. After dipping to a two-year low, the single currency bounced back toward the 1.12 threshold. The pound sterling has been on a roller-coaster ride over the last few day amid Brexit uncertainties. GBP/USD slid as low as 1.2606 before returning above the 1.27 level. Overall, we are not convinced that the global situation would change much in the short-term as US/China trade war is in full swing. Cautions is still warranted, especially for directional trading; however, given the market turmoil, volatility trades are quite appealing.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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