European inflation remains soft ahead of Dec ECB meeting; another 'key' week for Brexit talks

Notes/Observations

- Germany's various State CPI data decreased further ; Spanish and Italian Nov readings in negative territory as well

- Brexit negotiation enter another ‘pivotal' week

- China Nov PMI data expands at fastest pace in over 3 years while Japan Industrial Production grew for 5th straight month

- OPEC+ members meeting and seem to have disagreements over its 2021 policy

Asia:

- China Nov Manufacturing PMI (Govt official) registered its 9th month of expansion and highest since Sept 2017 (52.1 v 51.5e)

- Japan Oct Preliminary Industrial Production registered its 5th consecutive month of increase (M/M: 3.8% v 2.3%e; Y/Y: -3.2% v -4.6%e)

Coronaviurs:

- Total global cases 62.7M (+3.1% vs. Fri); total deaths: 1.46M (+2.0% vs. Fri)

Europe:

- ECB's De Guindos (Spain): Expects prices in the Euro Zone to continue falling in 2020 before a slow rebound next year (in-line with Council view)

- Germany Econ Min Altmaier stated that the partial lockdown measures could be extended until early Spring if infections were not brought under control

- Reports circulated that EU Commission had started leaning on their negotiators to get a trade deal with Britain done by Friday this week (Dec 4th)

- UK Foreign Min Raab said to have signaled that there has been some progress on the ‘level playing field' provisions but said that fishing remained the most difficult issue to solve. Expected "very significant" week for Brexit talks as clock ticked down'

- Brexit fishing breakthrough close, with EU set to recognize British sovereignty over UK waters

- UK PM Johnson and Ireland PM Martin spoke on Friday evening (Nov 27th) and talked about the importance of respecting the sovereignty of the country, they also talked about the need to prioritize the Good Friday peace deal and the avoid a hard border.

Americas:

- President Elect Biden said to have finished his economic team after naming Neera Tanden as head of Management ande Budget as well as Cecilia Rouse as Chair of Council of Economic Advisors

- President Trump said to be planning to add CNOOC and SMIC to defense blacklist of alleged China military companies

Energy:

- OPEC+ failed to come to an agreement on delaying the OPEC+ production increase ahead of the full bi-annual meeting scheduled for Monday, Nov 30th

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.05% at 393.04, FTSE +0.27% at 6,384.95, DAX +0.26% at 13,370.80, CAC-40 +0.20% at 5,586.98, IBEX-35 -0.89% at 8,118.00, FTSE MIB-0.63% at 22,212.50, SMI -0.01% at 10,500.00, S&P 500 Futures -0.41%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open lower across the board but later moderated losses to trade mixed; better performing sectors include health care and consumer discretionary; energy and financials sectors among underperformers; reportedly OPEC+ to discuss rollover of production cuts; Siltronic receives takeover offer from GlobalWafers; reportedly JD Sports less likely to make offer for Debenhams; Aegon agrees to sell CIS business; focus on first-ever Schengen Forum, and Eurogroup meeting; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Zoom and Curevac

Equities

- Financials: ABN AMRO [ABN.NL] -5% (strategy review)

- Healthcare: Indivior [INDV.UK] +6% (statement on claim)

- Industrials: Kion Group [KGX.DE] -2% (capital raise)

- Technology: Siltronic [WAF.DE] +10% (speculated to be acquired), Tremor International [TRMR.UK] +31% (trading update)

Speakers

- OPEC+ members said to discuss oil cuts roll over for 3 or 4 months and a gradual increase in output as main scenarios (**Reminder: OPEC+ producer to meet Monday to discuss output cut agreement after panel failed to reach an agreement to delay January's planned production increase)

- Russia govt spokesperson: President Putin had no plans to talk with Saudis ahead of OPEC+ meeting. OPEC+ differences were now less serious than in spring

Currencies/Fixed Income

- USD remained on soft footing into month-end as the US dollar index registered its lowest level since April 2018. Dealers continued to note the greenback's safe-haven status as reversing as a general risk-on mood reverberates

- EUR/USD edging closer to the pivotal 1.20 level where its sparked a rash of verbal intervention from ECB members a few months back. Various European inflation readings remained in negative territory but ECB had foreshadowed this ahead of its Dec policy meeting.

- GBP/USD holding above the 1.33 level as Brexit negotiations enter a pivotal week. Various hurdles remain in reaching a trade agreement but both side are talking and hopeful that a compromise could be reached.

Economic Data

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.8 v 10.1% prior

- (ZA) South Africa Oct M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.8 v 9.6%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3%e

- (FI) Finland Oct House Price Index M/M: 0.0 v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.8 v 2.2% prior

- (FI) Finland Sept Final Trade Balance: -€0.4B v -€0.4B prelim

- (DK) Denmark Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 4.9% v 4.9%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -8.1% prior

- (DK) Denmark Oct Gross Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.8% prior; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 4.1% v 4.3% prior

- (NO) Norway Oct Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.6% prior

- (TR) Turkey Q3 GDP Q/Q: 15.6% v 14.0%e; YY: 6.7% v 4.8%e

- (TR) Turkey Oct Trade Balance: -2.4% v -$2.4Be

- (TH) Thailand Oct Current Account Balance: $1.0B v $1.3Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): -$1.4B v -$1.5B prior; Trade Balance: $3.2B v $3.2B prior; Exports Y/Y: -5.6% v -4.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -12.1% v -8.1% prior

- (CH) Swiss Oct Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.1% v 0.4% prior

- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Saxony M/M: -0.7% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0% prior

- (ES) Spain Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.9%e

- (ES) Spain Nov Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.8%e

- (ES) Spain Sept Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: -6.9% v -2.2% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: +18.4% v -3.4% prior

- (CH) Swiss Nov KOF Leading Indicator: 103.5 v 101.0e

- (AT) Austria Oct PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v -1.8% prior

- (HU) Hungary Sept Average Gross Wages Y/Y: 8.8% v 9.1% prior

- (SE) Sweden Sept Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0% prior

- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1% prior

- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Hesse M/M: -0.8% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.6% prior

- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.8% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1% prior

- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.8% v 0.1%; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0% prior

- (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 706.5B v 707.3B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 644.4B v 643.3B prior

- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Dec Bank Daily FX Purchases (NOK): -0.5B v -1.6B prior (adj to -0.5B)

- (IS) Iceland Q3 GDP Q/Q: +2.6% v -7.3% prior; Y/Y: -10.4% v -10.9% prior

- (IS) Iceland Q3 Current Account Balance (DKK): -1.2B v -5.9B prior

- (PL) Poland Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 7.9% v 7.7% prelim; Y/Y: -1.5% v -1.6% prelim

- (CZ) Czech Oct M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.8% v 11.2% prior

- (DE) Germany Nov CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.8% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.2% prior

- (ES) Spain Sept Current Account: €0.3B v €1.4B prior

- (UK) Oct Net Consumer Credit: -£0.6B v £0.0Be; Net Lending: £4.3B v £4.5Be

- (UK) Oct Mortgage Approvals: 97.5K v 84.0Ke (highest level since 2007)

- (UK) Oct M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.6% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 12.9% v 12.3% prior; M4 (ex-IOFCs) Annualized: 6.9% v 6.4% prior

- (PT) Portugal Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1% prior

- (PT) Portugal Nov Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.6% prior

- (SL) Sri Lanka Nov CPI Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.3%e

- (GR) Greece Sept Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -3.5% v -1.0% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -3.5% v -1.4% prior

- (BE) Belgium Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 11.4% v 10.7% prelim; Y/Y: -4.5% v -5.2% prelim

- (IT) Italy Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.3%e

- (IT) Italy Nov Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.5%e

Fixed income Issuance

- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.04% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.95x v 2.28x prior

Looking Ahead

- (MX) Mexico Oct YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -308.5B prior

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.5B in 12-month BuBills

- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 3-month and 9-month Bills

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays)

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q3 Final GDP (3rd reading) Q/Q: No est v 13.3% prelim; Y/Y: No est v -5.7% prelim

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Trade Balance (ZAR): 26.3Be v 33.5B prior

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -42.9B prior

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 19.0%e v 9.5% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 6.3% prior

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.5%e v 1.9% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 4.7%e v 5.3% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 484.8K tons prior

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Primary Budget Balance (BRL): -6.6Be v -64.6B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: -41.7Be v -103.4B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 62.6%e v 61.4% prior

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.7%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Nov Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.8%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.5% prior

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index - 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays) - 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Building Permits M/M: -3.9%e v +17.0% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q3 Current Account Balance: -$9.0Be v -$8.6B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: No est v -2.2% prior

- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.8-7.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills - 09:45 (US) Nov Chicago Purchase Managers Index (PMI): 59.0e v 61.1 prior

- 09:45 (EU) ECB weekly QE bond buying update

- 10:00 (US) Oct Pending Home Sales M/M: +1.0%e v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 21.9% prior

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Oct National Unemployment Rate: No est v 15.8% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 17.5%e v 18.3% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 4.772B prior

- 10:30 (US) Nov Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index: 15.8e v 19.8 prior

- 11:00 (NZ) New Zealand Nov House Prices Y/Y: No est v 8.0% prior

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report

- 16:30 (AU) Australia Nov Performance of Manufacturing Index: No est v 56.3 prior

- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Nov Minutes

- 17:00 (AU) Australia Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 56.1 prelim

- 17:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 104.5 prior

- 18:00 (AU) Australia Nov House Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior

- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.9%e v 1.9% prelim; Y/Y: -1.35e v -1.3% prelim

- 18:30 (JP) Japan Oct Jobless Rate: 3.1%e v 3.0% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.03e v 1.03 prior

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Trade Balance: $7.0Be v $8.9B prior; Exports Y/Y: +7.5%e v -3.8% prior; Imports Y/Y: -2.2%e v -5.6% prior

- 19:30 (KR) South Korea Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.2 prior

- 19:30 (ID) Indonesia Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 47.8 prior

- 19:30 (MY) Malaysia Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.5prior

- 19:30 (PH) Philippines Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.5 prior

- 19:30 (TH) Thailand Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.8 prior

- 19:30 (TW) Taiwan Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 55.1 prior

- 19:30 (VN) Vietnam Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.8 prior PMI

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q3 Current Account Balance: A$7.1Be v A$17.7B prior; Net Exports of GDP: -1.7%e v +1.0% prior

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Building Approvals M/M: -3.0%e v 15.4% prior

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.3 prelim

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.3 prior

- 20:45 (CN) China Nov Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 53.5e v 53.6 prior

- 22:30 (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 0.10%; Expected to leave 3-yearr Yield Target unchanged at 0.10%

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 10-Year JGB Bonds

- 23:00 (ID) Indonesia Nov CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior

- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills